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DIRECTV: Forecasting Diffusion of a New Technology Prior to Product Launch

2001; Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences; Volume: 31; Issue: 3_supplement Linguagem: Inglês

10.1287/inte.31.3s.82.9677

1526-551X

Frank M. Bass, Kent Gordon, Teresa L. Ferguson, Mary Lou Githens,

Complex Systems and Decision Making

We conducted research for planning the launch of a satellite television product, leading to a prelaunch forecast of subscriptions of satellite television over a five-year horizon. The forecast was based on the Bass model. We derived parameters of the model in part from stated-intentions data from potential consumers and in part by guessing by analogy. The 1992 forecast of the adoption and diffusion of satellite television proved to be quite good in comparison with actual subscriptions over the five-year period from 1994 through 1999.