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Estimating Dispersal from Patterns of Spread: Spatial and Local Control of Lake Invasions

2002; Wiley; Volume: 83; Issue: 12 Linguagem: Inglês

10.2307/3072081

1939-9170

John E. Havel, Jonathan B. Shurin, John R Jones,

Environmental Toxicology and Ecotoxicology

EcologyVolume 83, Issue 12 p. 3306-3318 Regular Article ESTIMATING DISPERSAL FROM PATTERNS OF SPREAD: SPATIAL AND LOCAL CONTROL OF LAKE INVASIONS John E. Havel, John E. Havel Department of Biology, Southwest Missouri State University, 901 South National Avenue, Springfield, Missouri 65804 USA E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorJonathan B. Shurin, Jonathan B. Shurin National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101 USASearch for more papers by this authorJohn R. Jones, John R. Jones School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65201 USASearch for more papers by this author John E. Havel, John E. Havel Department of Biology, Southwest Missouri State University, 901 South National Avenue, Springfield, Missouri 65804 USA E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorJonathan B. Shurin, Jonathan B. Shurin National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101 USASearch for more papers by this authorJohn R. Jones, John R. Jones School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65201 USASearch for more papers by this author First published: 01 December 2002 https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[3306:EDFPOS]2.0.CO;2Citations: 78 Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract The spread of exotic species can be limited by dispersal or by constraints imposed by the local environment. Using data collected from 152 Missouri (USA) lakes over seven years, we asked whether models based on dispersal or local-scale processes best predicted invasion by the exotic cladoceran Daphnia lumholtzi. We used multiple logistic regression to test the relative importance of 10 local physicochemical features and proximity to all known potential source populations for predicting which lakes were invaded. The decline in invasion likelihood with distance to source populations was used to estimate the shape of the dispersal kernel. Between 1992 and 1998 the cumulative prevalence of D. lumholtzi increased from 6% to 34% of lakes sampled, with frequent appearances of populations in new watersheds. Spatial position and physical factors were both important for predicting the new colonization events. The probability of colonization increased with lake surface area and epilimnetic temperature, declined with increasing conductivity, and was unaffected by variation in lake fertility. Invasion likelihood declined sharply as a nonlinear function of distance to source populations up to around 30 km, and was relatively constant at greater distances. The results suggest that dispersal and local abiotic constraints jointly limit the spread of D. lumholtzi. This approach illustrates how range expansion can be used to estimate dispersal rates at broad spatial scales. Supporting Information Filename Description https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3297704 Research data pertaining to this article is located at figshare.com: Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. 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