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Looking Backwards: Assessing the Projections of a Transition Matrix Model

1999; Wiley; Volume: 9; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.2307/2641396

1939-5582

Paulette Bierzychudek,

Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies

Ecological ApplicationsVolume 9, Issue 4 p. 1278-1287 Article LOOKING BACKWARDS: ASSESSING THE PROJECTIONS OF A TRANSITION MATRIX MODEL Paulette Bierzychudek, Paulette Bierzychudek Department of Biology, Lewis and Clark College, Portland, Oregon 97219 USA E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author Paulette Bierzychudek, Paulette Bierzychudek Department of Biology, Lewis and Clark College, Portland, Oregon 97219 USA E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this author First published: 01 November 1999 https://doi.org/10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[1278:LBATPO]2.0.CO;2Citations: 93 Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract Analyses of population projection models are increasingly being used by conservation biologists and land managers to assess the health of sensitive species and to evaluate the likely effects of management strategies, harvesting, grazing, or other manipulations. Here I describe some of the limitations of this approach and illustrate how these limitations may affect its usefulness. I do this by comparing the results of such an analysis, performed in 1979 on two populations of a perennial plant, Arisaema triphyllum, with new information about the size and structure of these same populations gathered in 1994, 15 years later. While one population changed as the model projected it would, the other behaved quite differently from the projection. Instead of increasing in size, this population decreased between 1979 and 1994. 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