Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Artigo Produção Nacional

BIBTEX RIS

COVID-19 in Amazonia, Brazil: How Will We Eradicate Severe Cases of COVID-19?

2022; RELX Group (Netherlands); Linguagem: Inglês

10.2139/ssrn.4117359

1556-5068

Lucas Ferrante, Eduardo Capanema, Wilhelm Alexander Cardoso Steinmetz, Bruce Nelson, Alexandre C. L. Almeida, Jeremias Leão, Ruth Camargo Vassão, Philip M. Fearnside, Unaí Tupinambás,

Mosquito-borne diseases and control

Background: Manaus, the capital of Brazil’s state of Amazonas, became the center of the world's attention when the health system collapsed causing thousands of deaths after politicians orchestrated an attempt to induce herd immunity in the population through natural contact with SARS- CoV-2. Three waves of COVID-19 hit Manaus causing more than 9600 deaths in this city of 2.2 million. Given that local data have shown that natural contact with the virus does not provide lasting immunity, it is relevant to estimate when the population could reach herd immunity through vaccination so that severe forms of COVID 19 can be eradicated.Methods: We estimated the time when herd immunity via vaccination would be reached in Manaus using the same SEIRS model (Susceptible – Exposed – Infected – Removed- Susceptible) that was able to predict the second and third waves of COVID-19 in Manaus (four and twelve months in advance, respectively).Findings: Our results point to a new wave of COVID-19 in Manaus caused by the Omicron BA.2 variant and indicate that herd immunity will only be achieved when 90 to 95% of the entire population, including children, is vaccinated against COVID-19.Interpretation: Our results support the need for at least an annual or biannual booster dose of vaccine for protection against new variants, thus eradicating the severe forms of COVID-19. Our results indicate that the pandemic is far from over, given the current level of vaccination, and do not support the current government’s decision to relax requirements for the use of masks.Funding: This work was supported by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas (FAPEAM). LF thanks PROEX and POSGRAD 2020- Biologia (Ecologia) Edital: Resolução N. 006/2020.Declaration of Interest: Authors declare no competing interests.