Strategic hedging in the Black Sea: The case of Turkey versus Russia
2022; Routledge; Volume: 41; Issue: 5 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/01495933.2022.2111908
ISSN1521-0448
Autores Tópico(s)International Relations and Foreign Policy
ResumoAbstractAlthough strategic hedging has attracted increasing scholarly attention in the study of how secondary states manage their relations with a neighboring great power, existing works on the subject suffer from a serious defect: privileging unit-level variables over structural determinants and security imperatives. The crux of secondary state hedging, however, is to manage the power imbalance against a local great power and security requirements must therefore be considered as the prime determinant behind decisions to embrace hedging strategies. I shall examine this hypothesis against the empirical evidence provided by the case of Turkey and Russia in the Black Sea region. NotesNotes1 Denny Roy, "Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or Bandwagoning?," Contemporary Southeast Asia 27, no. 2 (2005): 305–22; Daniel Flemes, "Emerging Middle Powers' Soft Balancing Strategy," (State and Perspectives of the IBSA Dialogue Forum, No: 57, Hamburg, 2007); John D. 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Joireman and Roza Tulepbayeva, "Between the Bear and the Dragon: Multivectorism in Kazakhstan as a Model Strategy for Secondary Powers," International Affairs 96, no. 4 (2019): 975–93.5 Evren Balta and Behlül Özkan, Türkiye-Rusya İlişkilerine Tarih ile Bakmak, Boğaziçi Üniversitesi [Looking at Turkish-Russian Relations through History] (İstanbul: TÜSİAD Dış Politika Forumu Araştırma Raporu, 2016).6 Duygu Bazoğlu Sezer, "From Hegemony to Pluralism: The Changing Politics of the Black Sea," SAIS Review 17, no. 1 (1997): 1–30; Mustafa Aydın, "Geographical Blessing Versus Geopolitical Curse: Great Power Security Agendas for the Black Sea Region and a Turkish Alternative," Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 9, no. 3 (2009): 271–85.7 Şener Aktürk, "Toward a Turkish-Russian Axis? Conflicts in Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine, and Cooperation over Nuclear Energy," Insight Turkey 16, no. 4 (2014): 13–22; Evren Balta, "From Geopolitical Competition to Strategic Partnership: Turkey and Russia after The Cold War," Uluslararasi İliskiler 16, no. 63 (2019): 69–86; Mitat Çelikpala, "1990'lardan Günümüze Türk-Rus İlişkileri," [Turkish-Russian Relations from the 1990s Until Present] Avrasya Dosyası 13, no. 1 (2007): 267–98; Ziya Öniş and Şuhnaz Yılmaz, "Turkey and Russia in a Shifting Global Order: Cooperation, Conflict and Asymmetric Interdependence in a Turbulent Region," Third World Quarterly 37, no. 1 (2015): 71–95; David Svarin, "Towards a Eurasian Axis: Russia and Turkey Between Cooperation and Competition," Global Affairs 1, no. 4–5 (2015): 381–98; Paul Kubicek, "Strictly Pragmatism?: Prospects for a Russian-Turkish Partnership," Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 23, no. 2 (2021): 233–50. See for exceptions; Mustafa Aydın, "Contending Agendas for the Black Sea Region A Regional Alternative," Demokratizatsiya, no. 20 (2012): 47–61; Aydın, "Geographical Blessing Versus Geopolitical Curse".8 Mitat Çelikpala, and Emre Erşen, "Turkey's Black Sea Predicament: Challenging or Accommodating Russia," PERCEPTIONS 23, no. 2 (2018): 72–92; Oktay F. Tanrısever, "Turkey and Russia in the Black Sea Region: Dynamics of Cooperation and Conflict," (Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), Black Sea Discussion Paper Series, İstanbul, 2012); Pavel Shlykov, "Russian-Turkish Relations in the Wider Black Sea Region: Cooperation and Competition," PERCEPTIONS 23, no. 2 (2018): 93–116; Bülent Karadeniz, "Security and Stability Architecture in the Black Sea," Perceptions 12, no. 2 (2007): 95–117.9 John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Updated Ed. (New York: W. W Norton & Company, 2014), 381.10 Goh, "Meeting the China Challenge"; Kuik, "The Essence of Hedging Malaysia and Singapore's Response to a Rising China"; Kuik Cheng-Chwee, "How Do Weaker States Hedge? Unpacking ASEAN States' Alignment Behavior towards China," Journal of Contemporary China 25, no. 100 (2016): 500–14; Brock F. Tessman and Wojtek Wolfe, "Great Powers and Strategic Hedging: The Case of Chinese Energy Security Strategy," International Studies Review 13, no. 2 (2011): 214–40; Brock F. Tessman, "System Structure and State Strategy: Adding Hedging to the Menu," Security Studies 21, no. 2 (2012): 192–231; Darren J. Lim and Zack Cooper, "Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia," Security Studies 24, no. 4 (2015): 696–727; Preiherman, "Belarus's Asymmetric Relations with Russia"; Ji Yun Lee, "Hedging Strategies of the Middle Powers in East Asian Security: The Cases of South Korea and Malaysia," East Asia 34 (2017): 23–37; Kei Koga, "The Concept of "Hedging" Revisited: The Case of Japan's Foreign Policy Strategy in East Asia's Power Shift," International Studies Review 20 (2018): 633–60; Ll. López Vidal and Àngels Pelegrín, "Hedging Against China: Japanese Strategy Towards A Rising Power," Asian Security 14, no. 2 (2017): 193–211; Valiyev and Mamishova, "Azerbaijan's Foreign Policy Towards Russia Since Independence"; Arshid Iqbal Dar, "India–Vietnam Axis and China: The Allure of Hedging," India Quarterly 77, no. 2 (2021): 252–68.11 Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Boston, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979), 118.12 Thazha Varkey Paul, "The Enduring Axioms of Balance of Power Theory and Their Contemporary Relevance," in Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century, ed. Thazha Varkey Paul, James J. Wirtz, and Michel Fortmann (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004), 3.13 Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (New York: Cornell University Press, 1987).14 Randall L. Schweller, "Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In," International Security 19, no. 1 (1994): 72–107.15 Kuik, "How Do Weaker States Hedge?," 505.16 Goh, "Meeting the China Challenge," 2.17 Kuik, "The Essence of Hedging Malaysia and Singapore's Response to a Rising China," 163.18 Oystein Tunsjo, "U.S.-China Relations: From Unipolar Hedging toward Bipolar Balancing," in Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China: Power and Politics in East Asia, ed. Robert S. Ross and Øystein Tunsjø (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2017), 46.19 Alexander Korolev, "Systemic Balancing and Regional Hedging: China–Russia Relations, The Chinese Journal of International Politics 9, no. 4 (2016): 376–7; John D. Ciorciari and Jürgen Haacke, "Hedging in International Relations: An Introduction," International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 19 (2019): 370.20 Lim and Cooper, "Reassessing Hedging," 700.21 Adam P. Liff, "Unambivalent Alignment: Japan's China Strategy, the US Alliance, and the 'Hedging' Fallacy," International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 19, no. 3 (2019): 453–91; Lim and Cooper, "Reassessing Hedging," 713–16.22 Koga, "The Concept of "Hedging" Revisited"; Vidal and Pelegrín, "Hedging Against China".23 Roy, "Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or Bandwagoning?," 306; Ciorciari and Haacke, "Hedging in International Relations," 369.24 See Tunsjo's criticism of Lim and Cooper; Tunsjo, "U.S.-China Relations," 49–50; See also, John David Ciorciari (2009) "The Balance of Great-power Influence in Contemporary Southeast Asia," International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 9 (2009): 157–96.25 Kuik, "How Do Weaker States Hedge?"; Kuik, "The Essence of Hedging Malaysia and Singapore's Response to a Rising China," Preiherman, "Belarus's Asymmetric Relations with Russia"; Ciorciari, The Limits of Alignment; Valiyev and Mamishova, "Azerbaijan's Foreign Policy Towards Russia Since Independence"; Korolev, "Systemic Balancing and Regional Hedging"; Koga, "The Concept of "Hedging" Revisited"; Park Jin, "Korea Between the United States and China: How Does Hedging Work?," in Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies, ed. 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Hamilton and Anna Mikulska, "Russian-Turkish Relations and their Implications for the West," (Foreign Policy Research Institute, Pennsylvania, 2021).98 Lim and Mukherjee, "Hedging in South Asia".Additional informationNotes on contributorsEray AlimEray Alim (erayalim@hotmail.com) is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Batman University, Turkey. He obtained his doctorate degree in Political Science and International relations at the Yildiz Technical University, Istanbul. His research interests include Turkish foreign policy, Russia-Ukraine relations, security and strategy.
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