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Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields

2014; RELX Group (Netherlands); Linguagem: Inglês

10.2139/ssrn.2477522

1556-5068

Carlo Altavilla, Domenico Giannone, Michèle Modugno,

Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

In this study, we analyze the reaction of the U.S. Treasury bond market to innovations in macroeconomic fundamentals. We identify these innovations based on macroeconomic news, which are defined as differences between the actual releases and market expectations. We find that that macroeconomic news explain about one-third of the low frequency (quarterly) fluctuations in long-term bond yields. When we focus on the high frequency (daily) movements, this decrease to one- tenth. This is because macroeconomic news have a persistent effect on bond yields, whereas non-fundamental factors have substantial effects on the day-to-day movements of bond yields, although their effects are shorter lived.