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The dynamic analysis on low-carbon building adoption under emission trading scheme

2022; Elsevier BV; Volume: 263; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.energy.2022.125946

1873-6785

Qiang Du, Yalei Wang, Qiaoyu Pang, Tingting Hao, Yuqing Zhou,

Building Energy and Comfort Optimization

Low-carbon building (LCB) is generally considered an effective solution for reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions in the construction industry. However, LCBs have not been widely adopted by developers due to uncertainties of high R&D investments, immaturity of markets, and inefficiency of policy mechanisms. To promote the widespread application of LCBs, this paper firstly expounds the interactions among developers regarding the LCB adoption under emission trading scheme (ETS). Then, an evolutionary game model on LCB adoption is developed to analyze the systematic evolutionary stability and discuss the dynamic evolutionary process. The results show that the initial willingness of developers affects the evolutionary trajectories and developers with a high low-carbon level play a leading role in the promotion of LCBs. Key factors in relation with LCB adoption are further investigated through the simulation analysis method. The results reveal that the low-carbon market demand, the low-carbon synergetic benefit and the carbon price have positive impacts on LCB adoption, and higher attention should be assigned to the low-carbon synergetic benefit. This study also provides a significant reference for developers on maintaining market competitiveness and insights for the government on improving the performance of the ETS system.