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The 2022 Hunga-Tonga megatsunami: Near-field simulation of a once-in-a-century event

2023; American Association for the Advancement of Science; Volume: 9; Issue: 15 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1126/sciadv.adf5493

2375-2548

Sam J. Purkis, Steven N. Ward, Nathan M. Fitzpatrick, J. B. Garvin, D. A. Slayback, Shane J. Cronin, Monica Palaseanu‐Lovejoy, Alexandra Dempsey,

Geological and Geophysical Studies

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption in January 2022 generated catastrophic tsunami and contends for the largest natural explosion in more than a century. The main island, Tongatapu, suffered waves up to 17 m, and Tofua Island suffered waves up to 45 m, comfortably placing HTHH in the "megatsunami" league. We present a tsunami simulation of the Tongan Archipelago calibrated by field observations, drone, and satellite data. Our simulation emphasizes how the complex shallow bathymetry of the area acted as a low-velocity wave trap, capturing tsunami for more than 1 hour. Despite its size and long duration, few lives were lost. Simulation suggests that HTHH's location relative to urban centers saved Tonga from a worse outcome. Whereas 2022 seems to have been a lucky escape, other oceanic volcanoes have the capacity to spawn future tsunami at HTHH scale. Our simulation amplifies the state of understanding of volcanic explosion tsunami and provides a framework for assessment of future hazards.