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Impact of multi-annual renewable energy variability on the optimal sizing of off-grid systems

2023; Elsevier BV; Volume: 183; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.rser.2023.113514

1879-0690

Muhammad Shahzad Javed, Jakub Jurasz, Mohammed Guezgouz, Fausto A. Canales, Tyler Ruggles, Tao Ma,

Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

It remains a significant technical and economic challenge to fully power large-scale grids with intermittent renewable energy (RE). Meanwhile, due to the rapid decrease in the cost of RE power generation technologies in recent years, the number of real-world implementations and studies dedicated to the optimal capacity sizing of renewable off-grid systems has increased. However, a common approach in the literature is to rely on typical single-year meteorological and demand data. A negative effect of this assumption is that it does not consider the RE inter-annual variability, which might cause blackouts or oversizing the system and large curtailments. This study employs 43 years of hourly solar, wind, and demand data, coupled with different microgrid configurations, to evaluate the impact of diverse simulation periods on the total system cost, optimal RE mix, and system reliability. Our findings indicate that extended simulation periods considerably increased renewable energy systems (RES) reliability and that the resulting configurations can be up to 94% more robust than those obtained using a single year of data. Additionally, the optimal energy storage requirements increased when considering longer simulation periods, indicating that short simulation periods could underestimate energy storage capacities in off-grid systems. The overestimations or underestimations resulting from optimizations based on single-year data directly affect the long-term sustainability, reliability, and cost-effectiveness of the RES.