Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Epymodel: A User-Friendly Web Application for Visualising COVID-19 Projections for Paraguay Including Under-Reporting and Vaccination

2023; Springer Science+Business Media; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1007/978-3-031-36357-3_5

1865-0937

José Luis Vázquez Noguera, Hyun Ho Shin, Carlos Sauer Ayala, Sebastián Alberto Grillo, Pastor Pérez‐Estigarribia, Ricardo Torales, Silvia Vázquez Noguera, Carlos Gaona,

Data-Driven Disease Surveillance

Most health software fails due to the lack of efficient use. Moreover, the appearance of COVID-19 has generated the need for a user-friendly system that allows us to visualise possible scenarios of contagion, hospitalised patients and deaths. Previous work addressed the mathematical modelling of the spread dynamics and its impact in the public health system with time-dependent transmissibility and proportions using a moving time-window strategy. In this work, we extend the mathematical model to include an estimate of under-reported COVID-19 cases and the immunisation impact from vaccination campaigns. The model parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach with data from Paraguay and are compared to those obtained in a previous work. The comparisons show that the proposed model can better explain the different circumstances observed from Paraguay since June 2021, when the under-reporting and vaccinations effects become essential. Some scenarios are drawn based on the historical transmissibility and are assessed using the observed data. A web application called Epymodel was developed to show both the historical values of the parameters and variables of the proposed model, as well as the projections of the different scenarios. Finally, a usability test of the web application is performed. Users showed a high level of satisfaction in the use of Epymodel.