Produção Nacional
Revisado por pares
Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia
2023; National Academy of Sciences; Volume: 120; Issue: 33 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1073/pnas.2302661120
ISSN1091-6490
AutoresAdrià San-José, Pedro Mayor, Bruno Moreira de Carvalho, Hani R. El Bizri, André Pinassi Antunes, Miguel Antúnez, Rolando Aquino, Richard E. Bodmer, Jean P. Boubli, Elildo A. R. Carvalho, João Vitor Campos‐Silva, Pedro de Araújo Lima Constantino, Milton José de Paula, Arnauld L. J. Desbiez, Tula Fang, Luis A. Gómez-Puerta, Simon B. Knoop, Guillaume Longin, Thais Q. Morcatty, Louise Maranhão, Gabriel Fávero Massocato, Daniel Pereira Munari, André Valle Nunes, Pablo Puertas, Marcela Ãlvares Oliveira, Juarez Carlos Brito Pezzuti, Cécile Richard‐Hansen, Geovanna Santos, João Valsecchi, Eduardo M. von Mühlen, John Bosmediano, Xavier Rodó,
Tópico(s)Marine animal studies overview
ResumoPolycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode Echinococcus vogeli, is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca Cuniculus paca) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE's key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of E. vogeli. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies.
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