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Triangulating agent-based models, role-playing games, and a stakeholder-centric approach to change scenarios

2023; Elsevier BV; Volume: 64; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101323

1877-3443

Grace B. Villamor, Meine van Noordwijk, Klaus G. Troitzsch,

Sustainability and Climate Change Governance

Assertion of the validity of the way agents' decision-making remains one of the central epistemological problems in empirical agent-based model (ABM) simulations. Reliable and robust models of individual and group-level decision-making are needed if scenarios are to be relevant for policies with implications in natural resource management. Serious games (in the form of role-playing games) have emerged as stakeholder-centric ways of parameterizing human behavior and decision-making and validating ABM results. Iterations between games and ABMs may offer attractive options for quality control in salient, credible, and legitimate ABM use. However, a revisit to a validated case study after six years suggested that models and games generate 'prospects' rather than 'predictions' as events not foreseen in model development added to recognized parameter uncertainty.