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Prospective validation of the Israeli Score for the prediction of common bile duct stones in patients with acute calculous cholecystitis

2023; Springer Science+Business Media; Volume: 37; Issue: 11 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1007/s00464-023-10442-x

1866-6817

Paola Fugazzola, Lorenzo Cobianchi, Francesca Dal Mas, Enrico Cicuttin, Tommaso Dominioni, Simone Frassini, Matteo Tomasoni, Jacopo Viganò, Fausto Catena, Luca Ansaloni, Goran Augustin, Trpimir Morić, Selmy Awad, Azzah M. Alzahrani, Mohamed Elbahnasawy, Damien Massalou, Belinda De Simone, Zaza Demetrashvili, Athina‐Despoina Kimpizi, Dimitriοs Schizas, Dimitrios Balalis, Nikolaos Tasis, Maria Papadoliopoulou, Petrakis Georgios, Konstantinos Lasithiotakis, Orestis Ioannidis, Lovenish Bains, Matteo Magnoli, Pasquale Cianci, Nunzia Ivana Conversano, Alessandro Pasculli, Jacopo Andreuccetti, Elisa Arici, Giusto Pignata, Guido Alberto Massimo Tiberio, Mauro Podda, Cristina Murru, Massimiliano Veroux, Costanza Distefano, Danilo Centonze, Francesco Favi, Raffaele Bova, Girolamo Convertini, Vanni Agnoletti, Andrea Balla, Diego Sasia, Giorgio Giraudo, Gabriele Anania, Nicola Tartaglia, Giovanna Pavone, Fabrizio D’Acapito, Nicolò Fabbri, Francesco Ferrara, Stefania Cimbanassi, Luca Ferrario, Stefano Piero Bernardo Cioffi, Marco Ceresoli, Chiara Fumagalli, Luca Degrate, Maurizio Degiuli, Silvia Sofia, Leslie Claire Licari, Andrea Anderloni, Tommaso Dominioni, Marcello Maestri, Camilla Nikita Farè, Benedetta Sargenti, Mario Improta, Valeria Musella, Giulia Gambini, Alberto Patriti, Diego Coletta, Luigi Conti, Michele Malerba, Andrea Muratore, Marcello Calabrò, Beatrice De Zolt, Gabriele Bellio, Alessio Giordano, Davide Luppi, Carlo Corbellini, Gianluca M. Sampietro, Chiara Marafante, Stefano Rossi, Andrea Mingoli, Pierfrancesco Lapolla, Pierfranco M. Cicerchia, Leandro Siragusa, Michele Grande, Claudio Arcudi, Amedeo Antonelli, Danilo Vinci, Ciro De Martino, Mariano Fortunato Armellino, Enrica Bisogno, Diego Visconti, Mauro Santarelli, Elena Montanari, Alan Biloslavo, Paola Germani, Claudia Zaghi, Naoki Oka, Mohd Azem Fathi, Daniel Ríos‐Cruz, Edgard Efrén Lozada Hernández, Ibrahım Umar Garzali, Liliana Duarte, Ionuţ Negoi, Andrey Litvin, Sharfuddin Chowdhury, Salem M. Alshahrani, Silvia Carbonell Morote, Juan Jesús Rubio-García, Claudia Cristina Lopes Moreira, Íñigo Augusto Ponce, Fernando Mendoza‐Moreno, Anna Muñoz Campaña, Heura Llaquet Bayo, Andrea Campos‐Serra, Begoña Estraviz‐Mateos, Izaskun Markinez‐Gordobil, Aitor Landaluce-Olavarria, Mario Serradilla‐Martín, Antonio Cano-Paredero, Miguel Ángel Dobón Rascón, Hytham K. S. Hamid, Oussama Baraket, Emre Gönüllü, Sezai Leventoğlu, Yılmaz Türk, Çağrı Büyükkasap, Ulaş Aday, Yasi̇n Kara, Hamit Ahmet Kabuli, Semra Demirli Atıcı, Elif Çolak, S. Chooklin, S.S. Chuklin, Elena Martín‐Pérez, Ángela de la Hoz Rodríguez, Marcello Di Martino, Salomone Di Saverio, Ari Leppäniemi, Ernest E. Moore, Andrew B. Peitzman, Massimo Sartelli, Walter Biffl,

Pancreatitis Pathology and Treatment

Existing guidelines for predicting common bile duct stones (CBDS) are not specific for acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC). This paper is a posthoc analysis of the S.P.Ri.M.A.C.C study aiming to prospectively validate on a large independent cohort of patients the Israeli Score (IS) in predicting CBDS in patients with ACC. The S.P.Ri.M.A.C.C. study is an observational multicenter prospective study endorsed by the World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES). Between September 1st, 2021, and September 1st, 2022, 1201 participants were included. The Chi-Square test was used to compare categorical data. A Cochran-Armitage test was run to determine whether a linear trend existed between the IS and the presence of CBDS. To assess the accuracy of the prediction model, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated. Logistic regression was run to obtain Odds Ratio (OR). A two-tailed p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The rate of CBDS was 1.8% in patients with an IS of 0, 4.2% in patients with an IS of 1, 24.5% in patients with 2 and 56.3% in patients with 3 (p < 0.001). The Cochran-Armitage test of trend showed a statistically significant linear trend, p < 0.001. Patients with an IS of 3 had 64.4 times (95% CI 24.8–166.9) higher odds of having associated CBDS than patients with an IS of 0. The AUC of the ROC curve of IS for the prediction of CBDS was 0.809 (95% CI 0.752–0.865, p < 0.001). By applying the highest cut-off point (3), the specificity reached 99%, while using the lowest cut-off value (0), the sensitivity reached 100%. The IS is a reliable tool to predict CBDS associated with ACC. The algorithm derived from the IS could optimize the management of patients with ACC.