The (In)effectiveness of Conspiracy Theories in the Arab World
2023; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 19; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/17419166.2023.2265115
ISSN1741-9166
Autores Tópico(s)Security, Politics, and Digital Transformation
ResumoABSTRACTFootnote1This article explores the spread of conspiracy theories in the Arab world, specifically in the Arabic speaking countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), through a state-security prism. It downplays the common assumption that Arab culture is more prone than others to accepting conspiracy theories and instead establishes a link between the level of Arab states’ roles in policing information and the (in)effectiveness of conspiracy theories. The article argues that, through a top-down dissemination of information, Arab states have played a key role in spreading conspiracy theories to advance their agenda. Inversely, they have also successfully muted conspiracy theories that did not serve their agenda. To illustrate the salient role of Arab states in either spreading and/or muting conspiracies, this article explores three cases. The first case examines the success of Arab states in spreading conspiracy narratives centered on Israel as part of their response to their defeats in the 1948 and 1967 wars. The second case examines the success of some Arab states in muting COVID-19 conspiracy theories, focusing on regimes assessed by Freedom House as “not free” on Internet freedom. The third case focuses on Arab states assessed by Freedom House as “partly free” and shows that they fared just as poorly as their Western counterparts in overcoming vaccine hesitancy.Keywords: Arab cultureCovid-19IsraelMu’amaraState-sponsored conspiracy theories Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1. This article benefited from the feedback of Mia Bloom as well as three anonymous reviewers.2. Muhammad Amin, “al-Mu’amara Nazariyya wa-laysat Hura’ … Wa-Hadha huwa al-Dalil,” AlJazeera, March 4, 2020, المؤامرة نظرية وليست هراء. وهذا هو الدليل | الجزيرة نت (aljazeera.net)3. Dr. Maha al-Qasrawi, “Kadhiba Shaytaniyya … Ismuha Korona,” Ra’y al-Yawm, April 7, 2020, كذبة شيطانية. اسمها كورونا | رأي اليوم (raialyoum.com)4. Cited in Sky news (Arabic), August 14, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f9v66nG2w05. See also Hasan Ismik, “Li-Madha nahnu Mahwusun bi-Nazariyyat al-Mu’amara,” Al-Masry al-Yawm, February 18, 2021, https://www.almasryalyoum.com/news/details/22606436. Roger Cohen, “The Captive Arab Mind,” The New York Times, December 20, 2010.7. See for instance Brian E. Frydenborg, “On Arabs and Conspiracy Theories,” Small Wars Journal, August 31, 2018, https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/arabs-and-conspiracy-theories; Brendan Nyhan and Thomas Zeitzoff, “Conspiracy and Misperception Belief in the Middle East and North Africa,” June 27, 2018 https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmouth.edu/dist/5/2293/files/2021/03/mena-conspiracy.pdf (this article does not resort to culture but remarks on “widespread … anti-Western and anti-Jewish attitudes).8. Marvin Zonis and Craig M. Joseph, “Conspiracy Thinking in the Middle East,” Political Psychology 15, no. 3 (September 1994): 454.9. Daniel Pipes, The Hidden Hand: Middle East Fears of Conspiracy, New York: St. Martin’s Griffin, 1998, p. 2.10. Pipes, p. xii.11. The author has heard countless anecdotes from academics on this issue.12. Christian Paz, “All the President’s Lies about the Coronavirus,” The Atlantic, November 2, 2020, All of Trump’s Lies About the Coronavirus – The Atlantic.13. Just to cite a few, Cornel Zwierlein, “Security Politics and Conspiracy Theories in the Emerging European State System (15th/16th c.), Historical Social Research 38, no. 1 (143) (2013): 65-95; Victoria E. Pagan, “Toward a Model of Conspiracy Theory for Ancient Rome,” New German Critique, Winter 2008, no. 103, 27-49; Ed White, “The Value of Conspiracy Theory,” American Literary History, 13, no. 1 (Spring, 2002): 1-31.14. Stefanie Ortmann and John Heathershaw, “Conspiracy Theories in the Post-Soviet Space,” The Russian Review 71, no. 4 (October 2012): 551-564.15. Mia Bloom and Sophia Moskalenko, Pastels and Pedophiles: Inside the Mind of QAnon, (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2021), 1.16. Peter Knight, “Outrageous Conspiracy Theories: Popular and Official Responses to 9/11 in Germany and the United States,” New German Critique, Winter 2008, no. 103, 165-93.17. J. Eric Oliver and Thomas J. Wood, “Conspiracy Theories and the Paranoid Style(s) of Mass Opinion,” American Journal of Political Science, 58, No. 4 (October 2014), pp. 952, 956-8 (952-966).18. Matthew Gray, Conspiracy Theories in the Arab World: Sources and Politics, London/New York: Routledge, 2010, p. 14.19. Ibid., p. 122.20. Ala’ Alrababa’h and Lisa Blaydes, “Authoritarian media and diversionary threats: Lessons from 30 years of Syrian state discourse,” Political Science Research and Methods, Vol. 9, Issue 4 (October 2021), see 696-97 (693-708).21. Ilya Yablokov, “Conspiracy Theories as a Russian Public Diplomacy Tool: The Case of Russia Today (RT),” Politics 35 no. 3-4 (2015): 301-15; Haifeng Huang, “Propaganda as Signaling,” Comparative Politics 47, no. 4 (July 2015): 419-37.22. Dictionaries and Lexicons consulted include: al-Ma‘any (almaany.com); ArabicLexicon.Hawramani.com.23. Joseph E. Uscinski and Joseph M. Parent, American Conspiracy Theories, (New York: Oxford University Press, 2014), 33.24. Bloom and Moskalenko, Pastels and Pedophiles, 83-91.25. For a rich analysis of propaganda, see Brett Silverstein, “Toward a Science of Propaganda,” Political Psychology, March 1987 8, no. 1 (1987): 49-59. See also the classical work by Jacques Ellul, Propaganda: The Formation of Men’s Attitudes, New York: Vintage Books, 1965, especially Preface and Chapter 1.26. David Coady (Ed.), Conspiracy Theories: The Philosophical Debate, London/New York: Routledge, 2018, see Chapters 3 and 9 by Charles Pigden and David Coady respectively.27. Cablegram Dated 15 May 1948 Addressed to the Secretary-General by the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, May 15, 1948, LAS cablegram to SG – Question of Palestine (un.org)28. “The Question of Palestine,” https://www.un.org/unispal/history/29. On the importance of Nasser’s charisma, see Fouad Ajami, “On Nasser and His Legacy,” Journal of Peace Research 11, no. 1 (1974): 41-9.30. Interview with Gamal Abd al-Nasser, “First Anniversary of the Revolution,” al-Ahram, July 22, 1953. http://nasser.bibalex.org/TextViewer.aspx?TextID=SPCH-47-ar31. Nasser’s speeches can be accessed through Bibliotheca Alexandria, خطب (bibalex.org)32. “The ‘Protocols’ among Arabs,” Patterns of Prejudice 9, no. 4 (1975): 17-19. It was published by Muhammad Khalifa al-Tunisi.33. Bernard Lewis, “The Arab World discovers Anti-Semitism,” Commentary 81, no. 5 (May 1, 1986): 30-34.34. Manfred Sing, Arab Self-Criticism after 1967 Revisited: The Normative Turn in Marxist Thought and its Heuristic Fallacies, The Arab Studies Journal 25, no. 2 (Fall 2017): 144-91. Note the critique of Sing on how some leftist Arab scholars resorted to explanations of “backwardness” (ta’akhkhur) and “underdevelopment” (takhalluf).35. Lewis, op. cit., pp. 30-1.36. Michael B. Oren, Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East, p. 309. The name was chosen by Yitzhak Rabin.37. Ibid., p. 209.38. Ibid., p. 178. This quotation is attributed to Anwar al-Sadat, who was a Minister at the time.39. Ibid.40. Cited in Ibid., p. 226.41. Nizar Qabbani, “Hawamish ‘ala Daftari al-Naksa,” al-A‘mal al-Siyasiyya al-Kamila, Beirut: Manshurat Nizar Qabbani, 1986 (4th edition), p. 79.42. Gamal Abd al-Nasser, June 9, 1967, http://nasser.bibalex.org/TextViewer.aspx?TextID=SPCH-1221-ar43. Oren, p. 218.44. https://datacommons.org/ranking/Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita/Country/asia?h=country%2FARE&unit=%24; https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/international45. All figures are based on those reported by February 1, 2022. Note that Morocco’s GDP per capita is $3,0009.2 and yet it is performing above world average. For other countries, compare vaccination rates (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/international) alongside GDP per capita (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2020&locations=AE&most_recent_value_desc=false&start=1960&view=chart). One mustn’t also forget that war torn countries such as Yemen and Syria have additional reasons for lagging in vaccination.46. For a brief history of the Internet in the Arab world, see Brian Whitaker, “The internet in Arab countries: Development and growth of the internet,” al-bab.com, 2009, https://al-bab.com/arab-media/internet-development47. Neha Gupta, “Social media trends in MENA in 2020,” World Association of News Publishers, June 9, 2021, https://wan-ifra.org/2021/06/tiktok-trumps-snapchat-social-media-trends-in-mena-in-2020/48. Human Rights Watch, “False Freedom: Online Censorship in the Middle East and North Africa,” November 14, 2005, https://www.hrw.org/report/2005/11/14/false-freedom/online-censorship-middle-east-and-north-africa49. Helmy Noman, “Internet Censorship and the Intraregional Geopolitical Conflicts in the Middle and North Africa,” Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University, January 2019, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=331570850. For ranking on Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain, see https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-net/scores; for Qatar, see separately: https://freedomhouse.org/country/qatar/freedom-world/202151. https://freedomhouse.org/country/kuwait/freedom-world/202152. Federal Decree-Law no. (5) of 2012, ON COMBATING CYBERCRIMES, August 13, 2012 AD, the full text can be accessed on: https://wipolex.wipo.int/en/text/49957853. Sherouk Zakaria, “New UAE cybercrime law: Penalties for fake news, misleading ads, online begging,” Khaleej Times, November 30, 2021, https://www.khaleejtimes.com/government/new-uae-cybercrime-law-penalties-for-fake-news-misleading-ads-online-begging54. See, for instance, “UAE Public Policy,” UAE Public Policy (cpc.gov.ae).55. “What are the 13 Demands given to Qatar?” June 23, 2017, What are the 13 demands given to Qatar? | Qatar – Gulf News.56. Cited in Charlie Rose, “Qatar’s emir stands defiant in face of blockade,” October 29, 2017, Qatar’s emir stands defiant in face of blockade – CBS News.57. Ibid.58. See Aljazeera Media Network, Our Story | Al Jazeera Media Network.59. This is pointed out by Dr. Anwar M. S. Masadeh’s study, “Combating Cyber Crimes – Legislative Approach – A Comparative Study (Qatar, UAE, UK), ND, ReferenceFiles.aspx (almeezan.qa).60. Ibid. See also, “Law No. 11 of 2004 Issuing the Penal Code,” Section 5, Part 3, Article 370-387, Al Meezan – Qatary Legal Portal | Legislations | Law No. 11 of 2004 Issuing the Penal Code.61. Law No. 8 of 1979 on Publications and Publishing, Al Meezan - Qatar Legal Portal | Legislations | Law No. 8 of 1979 on Publications and Publishing62. See Amnesty International, Qatar: Repressive new law further curbs freedom of expression, January 20, 2020, Qatar: Repressive new law further curbs freedom of expression (amnesty.org); The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) can be access on International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights | OHCHR. See, in particular, Article 19.63. Cited in Amnesty International, Qatar: Repressive new law further curbs freedom of expression, January 20, 2020, Qatar: Repressive new law further curbs freedom of expression (amnesty.org)64. Interview with Senior Analyst in the UAE, December 2021.65. Nicole Perlroth, “How Spy Tech Firms Let Governments See Everything on a Smartphone,” The New York Times, September 2, 2016, How Spy Tech Firms Let Governments See Everything on a Smartphone – The New York Times (nytimes.com). See also the thorough documentations of numerous cases compiled by The Citizen Lab (citizenlab.ca).66. Ronen Bergman and Mark Mazzetti, “The Battle for the World’s Most Powerful Cyberweapon,” The New York Times Magazine, January 28, 2022 (updated January 31, 2022), The Battle for the World’s Most Powerful Cyberweapon - The New York Times (nytimes.com)67. Amnesty International, “UAE: Ruthless crackdown on dissent exposes ‘ugly reality’ beneath façade of glitz and glamor,” November 18, 2014, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2014/11/uae-ruthless-crackdown-dissent-exposes-ugly-reality-beneath-fa-ade-glitz-and-glamour/68. “UN rights expert urges UAE to free jailed activists,” Reuters, February 10, 2021.69. Andrew Leber and Alexei Abrahams, “Saudi Twitter blew up with support for the crown prince. How much of it is genuine?” The Washington Post, March 9, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/09/saudi-twitter-blew-up-with-support-crown-prince-how-much-it-is-genuine/70. See “How Saudi Arabia Used Twitter to Spy on Dissidents,” NPR, November 7, 2019, https://www.npr.org/2019/11/07/777352750/how-saudi-arabia-used-twitter-to-spy-on-dissidents; see also Bill Marczak, John Scott-Railton, Siena Anstis, and Ron Deibert, “Independent Peer Review of Amnesty International’s Forensic Methods for Identifying Pegasus Spyware,” The Citizen Lab, July 18, 2021, https://citizenlab.ca/2021/07/amnesty-peer-review/; Yarno Ritzen, “How Arab governments use cyberspace laws to shut down activism,” AlJazeera, July 25, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/7/25/how-arab-governments-use-cyberspace-laws-to-shut-down-activism71. Kasrine Al Halabi, C., Obeid, S., Sacre, H. et al. Attitudes of Lebanese adults regarding COVID-19 vaccination. BMC Public Health 21, no. 998 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10902-w72. Abdulrazzaq Al-Saiedi, “Latest COVID-19 Surge Pushes more Iraqis to get Vaccinated, But Hesitancy Still Remains,” Physicians for Human Rights, August 12, 2021, https://phr.org/our-work/resources/latest-covid-19-surge-push-more-iraqis-to-get-vaccinated-but-hesitancy-still-remains/73. Rabaa J, Dorsaf H, Hend J, et al. Perceptions of Tunisians on COVID-19 Vaccines: A Qualitative Study on a Sample of General Population,” International Journal of Psychiatry Research, 2021; 4(4): 1-6, https://www.scivisionpub.com/pdfs/perceptions-of-tunisians-on-covid19-vaccines-a-qualitative-study-on-a-sample-of-general-population-1843.pdf. Note that it took until February 2022 for Tunisia’s vaccination rate to edge above world average.74. Public Library of Science, “Understanding COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Jordan, the West Bank, and Syria,” December 9, 2021, https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-12-covid-vaccine-hesitancy-jordan-west.html75. Arab Barometer, https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/ArabBarometer-COVID_Vaccine_Infographic.pdf, note that the figures are not consistent with the other articles in different countries, most likely because people’s views may change over time.76. The first score measures obstacles to accessing the Internet, the second measures limits on content, the third measures violation of user rights.77. Note that though Kuwait is assessed to be “partly free,” its overall score is 37/100. Also note that Egypt and the UAE are comparable in terms of their Internet Freedom score. However, Egypt’s lack of resources led its government to politicize the “infodemic” in its attempt not just to refute mis/disinformation about the virus, but also that its hospitals lacked sufficient protective equipment. See Joey Shea, “Misinfo, Disinfo, and Fake News in Egypt’s COVID-19 ‘Infodemic,’” The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, May 8, 2020, Misinfo, Disinfo, and Fake News in Egypt’s COVID-19 “Infodemic” – The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (timep.org)78. Freedom House, https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-net/scores79. Ali Fattom’s credentials are listed on: https://www.emedevents.com/speaker-profile/ali-i-fattom80. The full program can be accessed on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43zE3bbA_3E, March 13, 2021.81. The document can be accessed on the following link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JjRt_OjBrHPjuegftFhvRmtdKwv9PFqo/view82. 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Mia Bloom and Yulie Maimon, “QAnon’s Jews: How an Antisemitic Conspiracy Theory Is Infiltrating Israel,” Haaretz, July 5, 2021, https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-jews-qanon-antisemitism-israel-conspiracy-theory-1.9967157Additional informationFundingThis work was supported by the Minerva Research Initiative [N00014-21-1-2339].
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