Economic Self-Reliance in a Leaderless World
2023; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 46; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/0163660x.2023.2259256
ISSN1530-9177
Autores Tópico(s)Economic Development and Digital Transformation
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes1 Christine Lagarde, “A new global map: European resilience in a changing world,” Keynote Speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, April 22, 2022, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2022/html/ecb.sp220422~c43af3db20.en.html.2 For an introduction to the concept of “de-risking” see European Commission, “Speech by President von der Leyen on EU-China relations to the Mercator Institute for China Studies and the European Policy Centre,” March 30, 2023, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_2063.3 The White House, “Remarks of President Joe Biden on the State of the Union,” March 3, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/03/01/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-delivered/.4 The White House, “FACT SHEET: CHIPS and Science Act Will Lower Costs, Create Jobs, Strengthen Supply Chains, and Counter China,” August 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/09/fact-sheet-chips-and-science-act-will-lower-costs-create-jobs-strengthen-supply-chains-and-counter-china/; and The White House, “Building a Clean Energy Economy: A Guidebook to the Inflation Reduction Act’s Investments in Clean Energy and Climate Action,” January 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Guidebook.pdf; to understand the rationale of the industrial strategy of the Biden administration see Jake Sullivan, “Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Renewing American Economic Leadership at the Brookings Institution,” April 27, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/04/27/remarks-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-on-renewing-american-economic-leadership-at-the-brookings-institution/.5 Mario Damen, “EU strategic autonomy 2013-2023 From concept to capacity,” European Parliament Research Service, July 2022, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2022/733589/EPRS_BRI(2022)733589_EN.pdf.6 Paola Tamma and Samuel Stolton, “Revealed: France’s massive ‘Made in Europe’ strategy,” Politico, January 13, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/france-europe-strategy-revealed-revealed-frances-massive-made-in-europe-strategy/.7 Department of the Treasury, “Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen on Way Forward for the Global Economy,” speech at the Atlantic Council, April 13, 2022, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0714.8 Günther Maihold, “The Rise of Friend-Shoring,” SWP Comment 2022/C 45, 01.08.2022, 1-7, https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/a-new-geopolitics-of-supply-chains.9 Narendra Modi, “PM’s Address to the Nation,” May 12, 2020, https://www.pmindia.gov.in/en/tag/pmspeech/.10 Neil Thomas, “Mao Redux: The Enduring Relevance of Self-Reliance in China,” MacroPolo, April 25, 2019, https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-self-reliance-xi-jin-ping-mao/.11 Alicia Garcia Herrero, “What is Behind China’s Dual Circulation Strategy,” September 7, 2021, Bruegel Policy Paper, https://www.bruegel.org/2021/09/what-is-behind-chinas-dual-circulation-strategy/.12 Mimi Lau, “China can’t count on global markets for food security, Xi Jinping says,” South China Morning Post, March 7, 2022, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3169467/china-cant-count-global-markets-food-security-xi-jinping-says.13 Lingling Wei, “China Looks to Secure Supplies as Strains With U.S. and Its Allies Grow,” Wall Street Journal, January 13, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-looks-to-secure-supplies-as-strains-with-u-s-and-its-allies-grow-11642075381.14 See, for example, Christopher Layne, “This Time It's Real: The End of Unipolarity and the Pax Americana”, International Studies Quarterly 56, no. 1 (2012): 203–213; Joseph S. Nye, Jr, “The rise and fall of American hegemony from Wilson to Trump,” International Affairs 95, no. 1 (2019): 63–80; Fareed Zakaria, “The Self-destruction of American Power,” Foreign Affairs 98, no. 4 (2019): 10-16.15 Stephen Krasner, “State Power and the Structure of International Trade,” World Politics 28, no. 3 (1976): 317-347.16 Charles P. Kindleberger, The World in Depression: 1929–1939 (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1973); See also Roy Kwon, “Hegemonies in the World-System: An Empirical Assessment of Hegemonic Sequences from the 16th to 20th Century,” Sociological Perspectives 54, no. 4 (2011): 593-617.17 Krasner, “State Power and the Structure of International Trade”; See also Giovanni Arrighi and Beverly Silver, “Capitalism and world (dis)order,” Review of International Studies 27 (2001): 257-279.18 Henry R. Luce, “The American Century,” Diplomatic History 23, no. 2 (1999): 159–171.19 Harold James, “Bretton Woods to Brexit: The global economic cooperation that has held sway since the end of World War II is challenged by new political forces,” Finance & Development, September 2017.20 Thomas Friedman, The World Is Flat (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005).21 Michael Mandelbaum, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts as the World’s Government in the 21st Century (New York: Public Affairs, 2005).22 Charles P. Kindleberger, “International Public Goods without International Government,” American Economic Review 76, no. 1 (1986): 1-13.23 Fred C. Bergsten, The United States vs. China: The Quest for Global Economic Leadership (London: Polity Press, 2022), 50.24 Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984).25 Kindleberger, “International Public Goods without International Government”; Harvard political scientist Joseph Nye, coined the term Kindleberger’s trap to describe this situation, see Joseph Nye, “The Kindleberger Trap,” Project Syndicate, January 9, 2017, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-china-kindleberger-trap-by-joseph-s--nye-2017-0126 Krasner, “State Power and the Structure of International Trade,” 341.27 For a discussion about different hegemonic theories see Steven E. Lobell, The Challenge of Hegemony: Grand Strategy, Trade, and Domestic Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003).28 Martin Wolf, “Geopolitics is the biggest threat to globalization,” Financial Times, November, 1, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/8954a5f8-8f03-4044-8401-f1efefe9791b.29 Roberto Bonfatti and Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, “Growth, Import Dependence, and War,” Economic Journal 128, no. 614 (2018): 2222–2257.30 G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan: the Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011), 349.31 Shekhar Aiyar, Anna Ilyina, et. al, “Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism,” International Monetary Fund, Staff Discussion Note, January 15, 2023, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2023/01/11/Geo-Economic-Fragmentation-and-the-Future-of-Multilateralism-527266.32 Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta, “Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Global Value Chains: Some Facts Many Questions,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 9048, 2019.33 International Monetary Fund, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, 2022.34 See WTO, “Regional trade agreements,” https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/region_e.htm.35 Joe Myers, “This is what people think about trade and globalization,” World Economic Forum, August 19, 2021, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/08/what-do-people-think-about-trade-and-globalization/.36 Walter Russel Mead, “The Jacksonian Revolt: American Populism and the Liberal Order,” Foreign Affairs, March-April 2017, https://www.proquest.com/docview/1888749591.37 Aiyar et al, “Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism.”38 Greg Ip, “Who Is Going to Police the New World Trading System?,” Wall Street Journal, January 14, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/world-trade-organization-sidelined-11673629991.39 Barack Obama, “Remarks by the President on the Economy in Winston-Salem, North Carolina,” December 6, 2010, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2010/12/06/remarks-president-economy-winston-salem-north-carolina.40 Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, “The crisis of American power: How Europeans see Biden’s America,” Policy Brief, European Council on Foreign Relations, January 19, 2022, https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-crisis-of-american-power-how-europeans-see-bidens-america/; see also Gideon Rachman, “Why Joe Biden is the heir to Trump,” Financial Times, August 7, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/f43f0e63-0fa4-4771-8eb4-b5d61f87ada4.41 The White House, “Fact sheet: How the Inflation Reduction Act Will Help Small Businesses,” September 12, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/09/12/fact-sheet-how-the-inflation-reduction-act-will-help-small-businesses/#:~:text=The%20Inflation%20Reduction%20Act%20will%20reduce%20costs%20for%20small%20businesses,Small%20Business%20Health%20Care%20Costs.42 Office of the United States Trade Representative, “The Biden-Harris Administration’s New Approach to the U.S. – China Trade Relationship,” October 8, 2021, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2021/october/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administrations-new-approach-us-china-trade-relationship; See also “U.S. reinstates 352 product exclusions from China tariffs,” Reuters, March 24, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nr3cpftf-nr3cpft-us-usa-trade-china-t-idTRNIKCN2LL1YQ.43 Matt Sheehan, “Biden’s Unprecedented Semiconductor Bet,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 27, 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/27/biden-s-unprecedented-semiconductor-bet-pub-88270.44 The White House, “Executive Order on Addressing United States Investments in Certain National Security Technologies and Products in Countries of Concern,” August 9, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/08/09/executive-order-on-addressing-united-states-investments-in-certain-national-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concern/.45 Gavin Harper, “How China’s gallium and germanium bans will play out,” Asian Times, July 10, 2023, https://asiatimes.com/2023/07/how-chinas-gallium-and-germanium-bans-will-play-out/.46 Ernest Scheyder and Eric Onstad, “Insight: World battles to loosen China's grip on vital rare earths for clean energy transition,” Reuters, August 2, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/world-battles-loosen-chinas-grip-vital-rare-earths-clean-energy-transition-2023-08-02/.47 James Kynge, Sun Yu and Leo Lewis, “Fortress China: Xi Jinping’s plan for economic independence,” Financial Times, September 15, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/0496b125-7760-41ba-8895-8358a7f24685.48 Keyu Jin, The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism (London: Viking, 2023).49 Benjamin Talin, “Chinas Grand Strategy – “Made in China 2025,” More Than Digital, June 21, 2021, https://morethandigital.info/en/chinas-grand-strategy-made-in-china-2025-mic25/.50 Clifford Krauss, Alexandra Stevenson and Emily Schmall, “In Russia’s War, China and India Emerge as Financiers,” New York Times, June 24, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/business/russia-oil-china-india-ukraine-war.html.51 See the website of the European Commission for more details, “Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: Questions and Answers,” July 14, 2021, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_3661.52 Christopher Lane, “The US–Chinese power shift and the end of the Pax Americana,” International Affairs 94, no. 1 (2018): 89-101; For a more financial perspective see Ray Dalio, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2021).53 David Dollar, “Reluctant player: China’s approach to international economic institutions,” Brookings, September 14, 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/reluctant-player-chinas-approach-to-international-economic-institutions/.54 Brahuma S. Coulibaly and Kemal Dervis (ed.), Essays on a 21st Century Multilateralism that Works for All, (Washington, DC: Brookings Report), February 2022, 25, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/21st-Century-Multilateralism.pdf.55 See the website of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for details: https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/belt-and-road/overview.html.56 James Kynge, “China’s blueprint for an alternative world order,” Financial Times, August 22, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/8ac52fe7-e9db-48a8-b2f0-7305ab53f4c357 Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov, “The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy,” IMF Working Paper No. 2019/074.58 Jeongmin Seong, Olivia White, Jonathan Woetzel, Sven Smit, Tiago Devesa, Michael Birshan, and Hamid Samandari, “Global flows: The ties that bind in an interconnected world,” McKinsey Report, 2022, https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/global-flows-the-ties-that-bind-in-an-interconnected-world.59 Ibid.60 Stefan Link, “How might 21st-century de-globalization unfold? Some historical reflections,” New Global Studies 12, no. 3 (2018): 343-365.61 Janan Ganesh, “The Ukraine war is not about democracy versus autocracy,” Financial Times, March 22, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/182adfa1-daae-449a-bdd9-8fe4265c20ed.62 Teddy Ng, “China says Washington’s ‘divisive’ Indo-Pacific strategy doomed to fail,” South China Morning Post, May 23, 2022, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3178764/china-says-washingtons-divisive-indo-pacific-strategy-doomed.63 Leo Grebler, “Self-sufficiency and Imperialism,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 198 (1938): 1-8.64 Mireya Solis, “China moves to join the CPTPP, but don’t expect a fast pass,” Brookings Blog, September 23, 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/09/23/china-moves-to-join-the-cptpp-but-dont-expect-a-fast-pass/.65 “Trading with the enemy,” Economist, March 19, 2022, https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2022-03-19.66 Amber Wang, “BRICS members back China’s call for expansion,” South China Morning Post, May 20, 2022, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3178530/brics-members-back-chinas-call-expansion.67 See European Commission, “Global Gateway,” https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/stronger-europe-world/global-gateway_en.68 Aiyar et.al, “Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism.”69 Sébastien Miroudot, “Resilience versus robustness in global value chains: Some policy implications,” Vox Eu, June 18, 2020, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/resilience-versus-robustness-global-value-chains-some-policy-implications.70 International Energy Agency, World Economic Outlook 2022, https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022/executive-summary.71 Antonio Varas and Raj Varadarajan, “How Restrictions to Trade with China Could End US Leadership in Semiconductors,” Boston Consulting Group, Report, March 2020.72 See the heated debate on the topic at the European Parliament on December 14, 2022, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/CRE-9-2022-12-14-ITM-004_EN.html.73 Grebler, “Self-sufficiency and Imperialism.”74 Julian E. Barnes, “How the Computer Chip Shortage Could Incite a U.S. Conflict with China,” New York Times, January 26, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html.75 David Lake, “Economic Openness and Great Power Competition: Lessons for China and the United States,” Chinese Journal of International Politics 11, no. 3 (2018): 237–270.76 Isaac Nakhimovsky, The Closed Commercial State: Perpetual Peace and Commercial Society from Rousseau to Fichte (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011).77 John Atkinson Hobson, Imperialism: A Study (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1965).78 Grebler, “Self-sufficiency and Imperialism.”79 Dale Copeland, Economic Interdependence and War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017).80 Klaus Hildebrand, The Foreign Policy of the Third Reich (London: B.T. Batsford, 1973), 88.81 Michael A. Barnhart, Japan Prepares for Total War: The Search for Economic Security, 1919-1941 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1987); see also Niall Ferguson, “The Second World War as an Economic Disaster,” in Micahel J. Oliver and Derek H. Aldcroft (eds.), Economic Disasters of the Twentieth Century (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2007).82 Eric Helleiner, “The Return of National Self-Sufficiency? Excavating Autarkic Thought in a De-Globalizing Era,” International Studies Review 23, no. 3 (2021): 933–957.83 John Maynard Keynes, "National Self-Sufficiency,” Yale Review 22, no. 86 (1933): 755-769.84 Robert Gilpin, U.S. Power and the Multinational Corporation: The Political Economy of Foreign Direct Investment (New York: Macmillan, 1976), 65.85 Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap? (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 2017).86 Roy Kwon, “Hegemonies in the World-System: An Empirical Assessment of Hegemonic Sequences from the 16th to 20th Century,” Sociological Perspectives 54, no. 4 (2011): 593-617.87 John Mearsheimer, “The false promise of international institutions,” International Security 19, no. 3 (1994–1995): 5–49.88 For a detailed discussion see Elizabeth Economy, The World According to China (New York: Polity Press, 2022).89 George Magnus, Red Flags: Why Xi's China Is in Jeopardy (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2018).90 Michael Beckley and Hal Brands, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China (New York: Norton, 2022).91 Vezirgiannidou Sevasti-Eleni, “The United States and rising powers in a post-hegemonic world order,” International Affairs 89, no. 3 (2013): 637-651.92 Alastair Iain Johnston, “Treating International Institutions as Social Environments,” International Studies Quarterly 45, no. 4 (2001): 487–515; Stewart Patrick, “Irresponsible stakeholders: the difficulty of integrating rising powers,” Foreign Affairs 89, no. 6 (2010): 44–53.93 Vezirgiannidou, ““The United States and rising powers in a post-hegemonic world order,” 651.94 Tim Cocks, “More than 40 nations interested in joining BRICS, South Africa says,” Reuters, July 20, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/more-than-40-nations-interested-joining-brics-south-africa-2023-07-20/.95 See Coulibaly and Kemal Dervis (ed.), Essays on a 21st Century Multilateralism that Works for All.96 Dani Rodrik and Stephen Walt, “How To Construct a New Global Order,” Working Paper, Harvard Kennedy School, March 2021, https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/new_global_order.pdf.97 Joseph Nye Jr, “Power and Interdependence with China,” Washington Quarterly 43, no. 1 (2020): 7–21.98 Paul McCartney, “American nationalism and US foreign policy from September 11 to the Iraq war,” Political Science Quarterly 119, no. 3 (2004): 399–423; John Ruggie, “American exceptionalism, exemptionalism, and global governance,” in Michael Ignatieff, ed., American Exceptionalism and Human Rights (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005).
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