How Putin Tore Up His Playbook for Victory
2023; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 46; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/0163660x.2023.2259666
ISSN1530-9177
Autores Tópico(s)Security, Politics, and Digital Transformation
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes1 Seth G. Jones, Riley McCabe, and Alexander Palmer, “Ukrainian Innovation in a War of Attrition,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 27, 2023, https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukrainian-innovation-war-attrition.2 Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt, and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “Soaring Russian Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Tactics,” New York Times, February 2, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/ukraine-russia-casualties.html.3 Dominic Tierney, “Why the United States is Losing—and Russia and Iran are Winning,” Washington Quarterly 44, no. 3 (2021): 69-87.4 Scott Wilson, “Obama dismisses Russia as ‘regional power’ acting out of weakness,” Washington Post, March 25, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-dismisses-russia-as-regional-power-acting-out-of-weakness/2014/03/25/1e5a678e-b439-11e3-b899-20667de76985_story.html.5 Mark Galeotti, Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine (New York: Osprey Publishing 2022), 135.6 Francis Fukuyama and Nino Evgenidze, “Russia is Winning in Georgia,” Foreign Affairs, April 6, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/georgia/russia-united-states-winning-georgia.7 “More Ukrainians Hold Positive Views of Russia Than Negative, Poll Says,” Moscow Times, October 10, 2018, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2018/10/10/more-ukrainians-hold-positive-views-russia-than-negative-poll-says-a63137.8 Robert E. Hamilton, Chris Miller, and Aaron Stein, Russia’s War in Syria: Assessing Russian Military Capabilities and Lessons Learned (Philadelphia: Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2020), https://www.fpri.org/research/eurasia/russias-war-in-syria-assessing-russian-military-capabilities-and-lessons-learned/.9 Michael Kofman and Matt Rojansky, “What Kind of Victory for Russia in Syria?,” Military Review, January 2018, https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Army-Press-On-line-Journal/documents/Rojansky-v2.pdf.10 Dominic Tierney, “How Putin Got Into America’s Mind,” September 13, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/how-putin-got-into-americas-mind/616330/.11 John A. Vasquez, ed., What Do We Know About War? (New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2nd edition, 2012), 263.12 Ryan Grauer and Dominic Tierney, “The Arsenal of Insurrection: Explaining Rising Support for Rebels,” Security Studies 27, no. 2 (2018): 263-295.13 Lionel Beeher, “Russia is trying to limit its casualties in Syria. Here’s why that is bad for Syrian civilians,” Washington Post, March 28, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/03/28/russia-wants-to-protect-its-troops-heres-why-that-is-bad-for-syrian-civilians/.14 Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and U.S. Commandos Unfolded in Syria,” New York Times, May 24, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html.15 Denis Volkov and Andrei Kolesnikov, My Country, Right or Wrong Russian Public Opinion on Ukraine (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2022), https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803.16 Igor Sutyagin, Russian Forces in Ukraine (London: Royal United Services Institute, 2015), https://static.rusi.org/201503_bp_russian_forces_in_ukraine_0.pdf.17 Dominic Tierney, How We Fight: Crusades, Quagmires, and the American Way of War (New York: Little, Brown & Co., 2010).18 “World military expenditure passes $2 trillion for first time,” SIPRI, April 25, 2022, https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2022/world-military-expenditure-passes-2-trillion-first-time.19 Colin S. Gray, Irregular Enemies and the Essence of Strategy: Can the American Way of War Adapt? (U.S. Army War College, March 2006), https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/2006/pubs/irregular-enemies-and-the-essence-of-strategy-can-the-american-way-of-war-adapt/.20 Carter Malkasian, The American War in Afghanistan: A History (New York: Oxford University Press, 2021).21 Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds, Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February-July 2022 (London: Royal United Services Institute, July 2022), https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf.22 “Collective West’s attempts to tear Russia apart futile — defense minister,” TASS, February 23, 2022, https://tass.com/defense/1580889.23 Taras Kuzio, “Putin’s plan for a new Russian Empire includes both Ukraine and Belarus,” Atlantic Council, May 29, 2023, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-plan-for-a-new-russian-empire-includes-both-ukraine-and-belarus/.24 Levada Center, “Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for February 2023,” March 3, 2023, https://www.levada.ru/en/2023/03/13/conflict-with-ukraine-assessments-for-february-2023/.25 Diego Lopes da Silva, Nan Tian, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Alexandra Marksteiner and Xiao Liang, Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2021 (Solna: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2022), https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/fs_2204_milex_2021_0.pdf.26 Cynthia Cook, “Friends Over Factories,” Foreign Affairs, March 27, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/friends-over-factories.27 Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds, Preliminary Lessons.28 James Hackett, Nick Childs, and Douglas Barrie, “If New Looks could kill: Russia’s military capability in 2022,” International Institute for Strategic Studies, February 15, 2022, https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis//military-balance/2022/02/if-new-looks-could-kill-russias-military-capability-in-2022.29 Jones, McCabe, and Palmer, “Ukrainian Innovation in a War of Attrition,” CSIS, https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukrainian-innovation-war-attrition.30 Galeotti, Putin’s Wars.31 Zoltan Barany, “Armies and Autocrats: Why Putin’s Military Failed,” Journal of Democracy 34, no. 1 (January 2023), https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/armies-and-autocrats-why-putins-military-failed/.32 “Corruption Perceptions Index,” Transparency International, https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021.33 Ministry of Defence (@Defence HQ), “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 October 2022,” Twitter, October 15, 2022, https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1581152307101593601/photo/1.34 Margarita Konaev and Owen J. Daniels, “Agile Ukraine, Lumbering Russia,” Foreign Affairs, March 28, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-ukraine-war-lumbering-agile.35 Andrew E. Kramer, “In an Epic Battle of Tanks, Russia Was Routed, Repeating Earlier Mistakes,” New York Times, March 1, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tanks.html.36 Michael E. O’Hanlon, Constanze Stelzenmüller, and David Wessel, “Ukraine Index,” Brookings Institute, last updated February 24, 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/ukraine-index/?tab=security.37 Mick Ryan, “The ingenious strategy that could win the war for Ukraine,” Sydney Morning Herald, May 17, 2022, https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-ingenious-strategy-that-could-win-the-war-for-ukraine-20220517-p5alz4.html.38 Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds, Preliminary Lessons.39 Evan Gershkovich, Thomas Grove, Drew Hinshaw, and Joe Parkinson, “Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line Advisers,” Wall Street Journal, December 23, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-war-advisers-11671815184.40 The Kremlin, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” July 12, 2021, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181.41 Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds, Preliminary Lessons.42 Ibid.43 “How Putin’s War in Ukraine Became a Catastrophe,” New York Times, December 16, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html.44 Valeriy Akimenko, “Ukraine’s Toughest Fight: The Challenge of Military Reform,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 22, 2018, https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/02/22/ukraine-s-toughest-fight-challenge-of-military-reform-pub-75609.45 Barany, “Armies and Autocrats.”46 Gershkovich, Grove, Hinshaw, and Parkinson, “Putin Leans on Advisers.”47 Michael Schwirtz et al., “Putin’s War,” New York Times, December 16, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html.48 Joshua Yaffa, “Inside the US Effort to Arm Ukraine,” New Yorker, October 17, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/10/24/inside-the-us-effort-to-arm-ukraine.49 Leo Sands and Andrew Jeong, “Most Ukrainians want to keep fighting until Russia is driven out, poll finds,” Washington Post, October 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/18/ukraine-victory-poll-gallup/.50 “The war is making Ukraine a Western country,” Economist, February 21, 2023, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/02/21/the-war-is-making-ukraine-a-western-country.51 Shane Harris and Dan Lamothe, “Intelligence leak exposes U.S. spying on adversaries and allies,” Washington Post, April 8, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/08/intelligence-leak-documents-ukraine-pentagon/.52 Irene Costantini and Dylan O’Driscoll, “Twenty Years of Externally Promoted Security Assistance in Iraq: Changing Approaches and Their Limits,” International Peacekeeping, 2022, DOI: 10.1080/13533312.2022.2149501.53 Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds, Preliminary Lessons.54 Harris and Lamothe, “Intelligence leak.”55 “Ukraine’s army must shed its Soviet legacy, says a military expert,” Economist, March 17, 2023, https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/03/17/ukraines-army-must-shed-its-soviet-legacy-says-a-military-expert.
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