Artigo Revisado por pares

How Putin Tore Up His Playbook for Victory

2023; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 46; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/0163660x.2023.2259666

ISSN

1530-9177

Autores

Dominic Tierney,

Tópico(s)

Security, Politics, and Digital Transformation

Resumo

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes1 Seth G. Jones, Riley McCabe, and Alexander Palmer, “Ukrainian Innovation in a War of Attrition,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 27, 2023, https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukrainian-innovation-war-attrition.2 Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt, and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “Soaring Russian Death Toll Gives Grim Insight Into Russian Tactics,” New York Times, February 2, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/ukraine-russia-casualties.html.3 Dominic Tierney, “Why the United States is Losing—and Russia and Iran are Winning,” Washington Quarterly 44, no. 3 (2021): 69-87.4 Scott Wilson, “Obama dismisses Russia as ‘regional power’ acting out of weakness,” Washington Post, March 25, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-dismisses-russia-as-regional-power-acting-out-of-weakness/2014/03/25/1e5a678e-b439-11e3-b899-20667de76985_story.html.5 Mark Galeotti, Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine (New York: Osprey Publishing 2022), 135.6 Francis Fukuyama and Nino Evgenidze, “Russia is Winning in Georgia,” Foreign Affairs, April 6, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/georgia/russia-united-states-winning-georgia.7 “More Ukrainians Hold Positive Views of Russia Than Negative, Poll Says,” Moscow Times, October 10, 2018, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2018/10/10/more-ukrainians-hold-positive-views-russia-than-negative-poll-says-a63137.8 Robert E. Hamilton, Chris Miller, and Aaron Stein, Russia’s War in Syria: Assessing Russian Military Capabilities and Lessons Learned (Philadelphia: Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2020), https://www.fpri.org/research/eurasia/russias-war-in-syria-assessing-russian-military-capabilities-and-lessons-learned/.9 Michael Kofman and Matt Rojansky, “What Kind of Victory for Russia in Syria?,” Military Review, January 2018, https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Army-Press-On-line-Journal/documents/Rojansky-v2.pdf.10 Dominic Tierney, “How Putin Got Into America’s Mind,” September 13, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/how-putin-got-into-americas-mind/616330/.11 John A. Vasquez, ed., What Do We Know About War? (New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2nd edition, 2012), 263.12 Ryan Grauer and Dominic Tierney, “The Arsenal of Insurrection: Explaining Rising Support for Rebels,” Security Studies 27, no. 2 (2018): 263-295.13 Lionel Beeher, “Russia is trying to limit its casualties in Syria. Here’s why that is bad for Syrian civilians,” Washington Post, March 28, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/03/28/russia-wants-to-protect-its-troops-heres-why-that-is-bad-for-syrian-civilians/.14 Thomas Gibbons-Neff, “How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and U.S. Commandos Unfolded in Syria,” New York Times, May 24, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html.15 Denis Volkov and Andrei Kolesnikov, My Country, Right or Wrong Russian Public Opinion on Ukraine (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2022), https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803.16 Igor Sutyagin, Russian Forces in Ukraine (London: Royal United Services Institute, 2015), https://static.rusi.org/201503_bp_russian_forces_in_ukraine_0.pdf.17 Dominic Tierney, How We Fight: Crusades, Quagmires, and the American Way of War (New York: Little, Brown & Co., 2010).18 “World military expenditure passes $2 trillion for first time,” SIPRI, April 25, 2022, https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2022/world-military-expenditure-passes-2-trillion-first-time.19 Colin S. Gray, Irregular Enemies and the Essence of Strategy: Can the American Way of War Adapt? (U.S. Army War College, March 2006), https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/2006/pubs/irregular-enemies-and-the-essence-of-strategy-can-the-american-way-of-war-adapt/.20 Carter Malkasian, The American War in Afghanistan: A History (New York: Oxford University Press, 2021).21 Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds, Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February-July 2022 (London: Royal United Services Institute, July 2022), https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf.22 “Collective West’s attempts to tear Russia apart futile — defense minister,” TASS, February 23, 2022, https://tass.com/defense/1580889.23 Taras Kuzio, “Putin’s plan for a new Russian Empire includes both Ukraine and Belarus,” Atlantic Council, May 29, 2023, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-plan-for-a-new-russian-empire-includes-both-ukraine-and-belarus/.24 Levada Center, “Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for February 2023,” March 3, 2023, https://www.levada.ru/en/2023/03/13/conflict-with-ukraine-assessments-for-february-2023/.25 Diego Lopes da Silva, Nan Tian, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Alexandra Marksteiner and Xiao Liang, Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2021 (Solna: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2022), https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/fs_2204_milex_2021_0.pdf.26 Cynthia Cook, “Friends Over Factories,” Foreign Affairs, March 27, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/friends-over-factories.27 Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds, Preliminary Lessons.28 James Hackett, Nick Childs, and Douglas Barrie, “If New Looks could kill: Russia’s military capability in 2022,” International Institute for Strategic Studies, February 15, 2022, https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis//military-balance/2022/02/if-new-looks-could-kill-russias-military-capability-in-2022.29 Jones, McCabe, and Palmer, “Ukrainian Innovation in a War of Attrition,” CSIS, https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukrainian-innovation-war-attrition.30 Galeotti, Putin’s Wars.31 Zoltan Barany, “Armies and Autocrats: Why Putin’s Military Failed,” Journal of Democracy 34, no. 1 (January 2023), https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/armies-and-autocrats-why-putins-military-failed/.32 “Corruption Perceptions Index,” Transparency International, https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021.33 Ministry of Defence (@Defence HQ), “Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 October 2022,” Twitter, October 15, 2022, https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1581152307101593601/photo/1.34 Margarita Konaev and Owen J. Daniels, “Agile Ukraine, Lumbering Russia,” Foreign Affairs, March 28, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-ukraine-war-lumbering-agile.35 Andrew E. Kramer, “In an Epic Battle of Tanks, Russia Was Routed, Repeating Earlier Mistakes,” New York Times, March 1, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tanks.html.36 Michael E. O’Hanlon, Constanze Stelzenmüller, and David Wessel, “Ukraine Index,” Brookings Institute, last updated February 24, 2023, https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/ukraine-index/?tab=security.37 Mick Ryan, “The ingenious strategy that could win the war for Ukraine,” Sydney Morning Herald, May 17, 2022, https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-ingenious-strategy-that-could-win-the-war-for-ukraine-20220517-p5alz4.html.38 Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds, Preliminary Lessons.39 Evan Gershkovich, Thomas Grove, Drew Hinshaw, and Joe Parkinson, “Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line Advisers,” Wall Street Journal, December 23, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-war-advisers-11671815184.40 The Kremlin, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” July 12, 2021, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181.41 Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds, Preliminary Lessons.42 Ibid.43 “How Putin’s War in Ukraine Became a Catastrophe,” New York Times, December 16, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html.44 Valeriy Akimenko, “Ukraine’s Toughest Fight: The Challenge of Military Reform,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 22, 2018, https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/02/22/ukraine-s-toughest-fight-challenge-of-military-reform-pub-75609.45 Barany, “Armies and Autocrats.”46 Gershkovich, Grove, Hinshaw, and Parkinson, “Putin Leans on Advisers.”47 Michael Schwirtz et al., “Putin’s War,” New York Times, December 16, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html.48 Joshua Yaffa, “Inside the US Effort to Arm Ukraine,” New Yorker, October 17, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/10/24/inside-the-us-effort-to-arm-ukraine.49 Leo Sands and Andrew Jeong, “Most Ukrainians want to keep fighting until Russia is driven out, poll finds,” Washington Post, October 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/18/ukraine-victory-poll-gallup/.50 “The war is making Ukraine a Western country,” Economist, February 21, 2023, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/02/21/the-war-is-making-ukraine-a-western-country.51 Shane Harris and Dan Lamothe, “Intelligence leak exposes U.S. spying on adversaries and allies,” Washington Post, April 8, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/08/intelligence-leak-documents-ukraine-pentagon/.52 Irene Costantini and Dylan O’Driscoll, “Twenty Years of Externally Promoted Security Assistance in Iraq: Changing Approaches and Their Limits,” International Peacekeeping, 2022, DOI: 10.1080/13533312.2022.2149501.53 Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds, Preliminary Lessons.54 Harris and Lamothe, “Intelligence leak.”55 “Ukraine’s army must shed its Soviet legacy, says a military expert,” Economist, March 17, 2023, https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/03/17/ukraines-army-must-shed-its-soviet-legacy-says-a-military-expert.

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