Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Moscow’s Perspective on Nuclear Deterrence and War

2023; Routledge; Volume: 168; Issue: 5 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/03071847.2023.2265415

1744-0378

Anzhelika Solovyeva,

Security, Politics, and Digital Transformation

AbstractWhile the threat of Russia's use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine remains, it becomes ever more important to address the long history of confusion among Western analysts in trying to understand the Kremlin's thinking. Anzhelika Solovyeva contends that while the Soviets were more serious and systematic in terms of deterrence than has often been assumed, layered deterrence and theatre-level war-fighting constitute two complementary but different paradigms of Russia's current nuclear strategy.◼ This research was supported by the Cooperation Program at Charles University, research area Political Science (POLS). I am especially grateful to the journal editor and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions for improving the paper. Any remaining omissions and errors are my sole responsibility.Notes1. Kevin Liptak, 'Biden Says He Doesn't Think Putin Would Risk Using a Nuclear Weapon', CNN, 11 October 2022.2. David E Sanger and James C McKinley, 'What We Know About Putin's Nuclear Threats', New York Times, 9 October 2022.3. Sophia Sleigh, 'Boris Johnson Says Vladimir Putin isn't "Mad" and Won't Use Nuclear Weapons', Huffington Post, 1 February 2023.4. Heather Williams, 'Deterring Nuclear Weapons Use in Ukraine', Center for Strategic and International Studies, 14 October 2022, , accessed 10 May 2023.5. Fareed Zakaria, 'Opinion: Putin Has Just Made the World a Far More Dangerous Place', Washington Post, 22 September 2022.6. Leon E Panetta, 'Opinion: If Putin Uses Nukes in Ukraine, the US Must Respond with Military Force', Politico, 12 October 2022, , accessed 10 May 2023.7. Nathan Williams, 'Ukraine War: Biden Says Nuclear Risk Highest Since 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis', BBC News, 7 October 2022.8. Keir A Lieber and Daryl G Press, 'The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of US Primacy', International Security (Vol. 30, No. 4, 2006), p. 7. See also: Nik Hynek, 'Missile Defence Discourses and Practices in Relevant Modalities of 21st-Century Deterrence', Security Dialogue (Vol. 41, No. 4, 2010) pp. 435–59.9. John J Mearsheimer, 'Playing with Fire in Ukraine: The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation', Foreign Affairs, 17 August 2022, , accessed 10 May 2023.10. Accessed through the digital archive of East View Information Services, , 10 February–10 March 2022.11. Bernard Brodie (ed.), The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Power and World Order (New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1946).12. Richard Pipes, 'Why the Soviet Union Thinks It Could Fight and Win a Nuclear War', Commentary (Vol. 64, July 1977), p. 21.13. Fred Charles Iklé, 'Can Nuclear Deterrence Last Out the Century?', Foreign Affairs (Vol. 51, No. 2, 1973), p. 268.14. Dmitry Adamsky, 'Nuclear Incoherence: Deterrence Theory and Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Russia', Journal of Strategic Studies (Vol. 37, No. 1, 2014), pp. 111–12.15. Raymond L Garthoff, 'Mutual Deterrence and Strategic Arms Limitation in Soviet Policy', International Security (Vol. 3, No. 1, 1978), p. 122.16. Raymond L Garthoff, 'The Tightening Frame: Mutual Security and the Future of Strategic Arms Limitation' in Derek Leebaert and Timothy Dickinson (eds), Soviet Strategy and New Military Thinking (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1992), p. 73.17. Jack L Snyder, 'The Soviet Strategic Culture: Implications for Limited Nuclear Options', RAND Corporation, no. R-2154-AF (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1977), p. 18.18. John Newhouse, Cold Dawn: The Story of SALT (New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1973), pp. 3–4.19. Alexey Arbatov, 'Understanding the US–Russia Nuclear Schism', Survival (Vol. 59, No. 2, 2017), p. 40.20. V D Sokolovsky (ed.), Voennaya Strategiya [Military Strategy], 2nd edition (Moscow: Voenizdat, 1963), p. 258; V Kulakov, 'Voprosy Voyenno-Tekhnicheskogo Prevoskhodstva' ['Issues of Military-Technical Superiority'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 1, 1964), p. 13. All translations by the author.21. William T Lee and Richard F Staar, Soviet Military Policy Since World War II (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1986), p. 30.22. Kulakov, 'Voprosy Voyenno-Tekhnicheskogo Prevoskhodstva' ['Issues of Military-Technical Superiority'], p. 21.23. K Moskalenko, 'Postoyannaya Boyevaya Gotovnost' – Kategoriya Strategicheskaya' ['Permanent Combat Readiness – A Strategic Category'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 1, 1969), p. 19.24. N Krylov, 'Raketno-Yadernyy Shchit Sovetskogo Gosudarstva' ['Nuclear-Missile Shield of the Soviet State'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 11, 1967), p. 21.25. Leonid I Brezhnev, Leninskim Kursom. Rechi i Stat'i [By Lenin's Course: Speeches and Articles], Vol. 2 (Moscow: Politizdat, 1970), p. 541.26. Bernard Brodie, Strategy in the Missile Age (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1959), p. 278.27. Colin Gray and Keith Payne, 'Victory is Possible', Foreign Policy (No. 39, 1980), pp. 26–27.28. Richard N Lebow and Janice G Stein, 'Deterrence and the Cold War', Political Science Quarterly (Vol. 110, No. 2, 1995), p. 160.29. Benjamin S Lambeth, Selective Nuclear Options in American and Soviet Strategic Policy, RAND Corporation, no. R-2034-DDRE (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1976), p. 42.30. R A Paulsen, The Role of US NuclearWeapons in the Post-Cold War Era (Montgomery, AL: Air University Press, 1994), p. 11.31. Jake Garn, 'Status of the MX Missile System', Hearing before the Committee on Armed Forces, House of Representatives, Ninety-Sixth Congress, 2nd Session, 1 May 1980, p. 44, , accessed 20 April 2022.32. Newhouse, Cold Dawn, pp. 58–59.33. Garthoff, 'Mutual Deterrence and Strategic Arms Limitation in Soviet Policy', p. 112.34. Amy F Woolf, 'Russia's Nuclear Weapons: Doctrine, Forces, and Modernization', Congressional Research Service, no. R45861, 21 April 2022 (updated), p. 6, , accessed 20 April 2022.35. Adamsky, 'Nuclear Incoherence', p. 112.36. S Ivanov, 'Sovetskaya Voennaya Doktrina i Strategiya' ['Soviet Military Doctrine and Strategy'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 5, 1969), pp. 47–48.37. V Zemskov, 'Voyny Sovremennoy Epokhi' ['Wars of the Modern Age'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 5, 1969(a)), p. 60.38. V N Yakovlev (ed.), Raketnyy Shchit Otechestva [Missile Shield of the Fatherland] (Moscow: The Central Publishing and Printing Complex of Strategic Rocket Forces, 1999), p. 77.39. V F Andreev, 'Voyenno-Strategicheskiy Paritet – Ob'yektivnyy Faktor Sderzhivaniya Agressivnykh Sil' ['Military-Strategic Parity – An Objective Factor in Deterring Aggressive Forces'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 2, 1989), p. 45.40. Lawrence Freedman and Jeffrey Michaels, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy: New, Updated and Completely Revised, 4th edition (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2019), p. 320.41. The author is grateful to one of the anonymous reviewers for highlighting this point.42. Hynek, 'Missile Defence Discourses and Practices in Relevant Modalities of 21st-Century Deterrence', p. 436.43. Newhouse, Cold Dawn, pp. 266–67.44. Ola Tunander, 'The Logic of Deterrence', Journal of Peace Research (Vol. 26, No. 4, 1989), p. 353.45. S Shtrick, 'Okruzheniye i Unichtozheniye Protivnika pri Vedenii Boyevykh Deystviy Bez Primeneniya Yadernogo Oruzhiya' ['Encirclement and Destruction of the Enemy in the Conduct of Hostilities Without the Use of Nuclear Weapons'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 1, 1968), p. 58; Krylov, 'Raketno-Yadernyy Shchit Sovetskogo Gosudarstva' ['Nuclear-Missile Shield of the Soviet State'], pp. 19–20.46. H F Scott, 'Soviet Military Doctrine in the Nuclear Age', in W C Frank and P S Gillette (eds), Soviet Military Doctrine from Lenin to Gorbachev: 1915–1991 (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), pp. 182–83.47. E Vishnevsky and Z Golomb, 'Voyennyye Deystviya Bez Primeneniya Yadernogo Oruzhiya' ['Military Action Without the Use of Nuclear Weapons'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 2, 1970), p. 64.48. V Zemskov, 'Kharakternyye Osobennosti Sovremennykh Voyn i Vozmozhnyye Sposoby Ikh Vedeniya' ['Characteristic Features of Modern Wars and Possible Methods of Their Conduct'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 7, 1969(b)), p. 23.49. Dmitry Adamsky, 'Deterrence à la Ruse: Its Uniqueness, Sources and Implications', in Frans Osing and Tim Sweijs (eds), NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies: Deterrence in the 21st Century – Insights from Theory and Practice (Breda: Springer, 2021), pp. 165–66.50. Ivanov, 'Sovetskaya Voyennaya Doktrina i Strategiya' ['Soviet Military Doctrine and Strategy'], p. 48.51. Raymond L Garthoff, Soviet Strategy in the Nuclear Age (New York, NY: Frederick A Praeger Publishers, 1960), pp. 107–10.52. The author is grateful to Dr Nikolai Sokov of the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP) and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies for highlighting this point in an online conversation with the author, 13 January 2022.53. Georgy K Zhukov, Pravda, 20 February 1956.54. Zemskov, 'Voyny Sovremennoy Epokhi' ['Wars of the Modern Age'], p. 24.55. N Kopov, 'The Employment of Atomic Artillery', Voennyi Vestnik [Military Herald] (No. 3, 1955), p. 77.56. Henry W Schaefer, Nuclear Arms Control: The Process of Developing Positions (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1986), p. 77.57. Gert Krell, 'The Controversy about "Flexible Response"', Bulletin of Peace Proposals (Vol. 17, No. 2), 1986, pp. 132–33.58. US Congress, 'The Effects of Nuclear War', Office of Technology Assessment, 1979, p. 4.59. Steven Kull, 'Feeling Good about Hard-Target-Kill Capability', Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (July/August 1988), p. 31.60. Executive Order of the President of the Russian Federation, 'On Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence', No. 355, 2 June 2020.61. V I Levshin, A V Nedelin and M E Sosnovsky, 'O Primenenii Yadernogo Oruzhiya dlya Deeskalatsii Voyennykh Deystviy' ['On the Use of Nuclear Weapons to De-escalate Hostilities'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 3, 1999), pp. 35–36; S V Kreidin, 'Global'noye i Regional'noye Yadernoye Sderzhivaniye: K Sisteme Printsipov i Kriteriyev' ['Global and Regional Nuclear Deterrence: Towards a System of Principles and Criteria'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 4, 1999), p. 75.62. For more details see: Anzhelika Solovyeva, Technology in Russian Strategic Culture: From the Nineteenth Century to the Present Day (Prague: Karolinum Press, forthcoming 2024).63. Ian Kearns, 'Beyond the United Kingdom: Trends in the Other Nuclear Armed States', BASIC Trident Commission, 30 October 2011, p. 35, , accessed 10 May 2023.64. Nikolai Sokov, 'Russia Clarifies Its Nuclear Deterrence Policy', VCDNP, 3 June 2020, , accessed 10 May 2023.65. Dmitry Adamsky, 'If War Comes Tomorrow: Russian Thinking About "Regional Nuclear Deterrence"', Journal of Slavic Military Studies (Vol. 27, 2014), pp. 163–88.66. Michael Kofman et al., 'Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Evolution of Key Concepts', CNA Research Memorandum, 13 April 2020, p. 12, , accessed 10 May 2023.67. Woolf, Russia's Nuclear Weapons: Doctrine, Forces, and Modernization, p. 8.68. Ekaterina Volkova, 'Shoygu: My Voyuyem ne Stol'ko s Ukrainoy, Skol'ko s Kollektivnym Zapadom' ['Shoigu: We Are at War Not So Much with Ukraine as with the Collective West'], Gazeta.ru, 21 September 2022, , accessed 10 May 2023.69. V V Selivanov and Yu D Ilyin, 'Kontseptsiya Voyenno-Tekhnicheskogo Asimmetrichnogo Otveta po Sderzhivaniyu Veroyatnogo Protivnika ot Razvyazyvaniya Voyennykh Konfliktov' ['The Conception of Military-Technical Asymmetric Response to Deter the Prospective Adversary from Unleashing Military Conflicts'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 2, 2022), p. 33.70. V A Kalganov, G B Ryzhov and I V Soloviev, 'Strategicheskoye Sderzhivaniye kak Faktor Obespecheniya Natsional'noy Bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii' ['Strategic Deterrence as a Factor in the Provision of National Security of the Russian Federation'], Voennaya Mysl', (No. 8, 2022), p. 8.71. S A Ponomarev, V V Poddubny and V I Polegaev, 'Kriterii i Pokazateli Neyadernogo Sderzhivaniya: Voyennyy Aspekt' ['The Criteria and Indicators of Non-Nuclear Deterrence: A Military Aspect'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 11, 2019), p. 98.72. A E Sterlin, A A Protasov and S V Kreidin, 'Sovremennyye Transformatsii Kontseptsiy i Silovykh Instrumentov Strategicheskogo Sderzhivaniya' ['Modern Transformations of the Concepts and Power Tools of Strategic Deterrence'], Voennaya Mysl' (No. 8, 2019), pp. 15–16.73. Levshin, Nedelin and Sosnovsky, 'O Primenenii Yadernogo Oruzhiya dlya Deeskalatsii Voyennykh Deystviy' ['On the Use of Nuclear Weapons to De-escalate Hostilities'], pp. 35–36.74. Mark B Schneider, 'Escalate to De-escalate', Proceedings of the US Naval Institute (Vol. 143, No. 2, February 2017), , accessed 10 May 2023.75. Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, 'Russian Nuclear Strategy and Conventional Inferiority', Journal of Strategic Studies (Vol. 44, No. 1, 2021), p. 3.76. Keir Giles et al., 'Myths and Misconceptions Around Russian Military Intent', Chatham House, 14 July 2022, , accessed 10 May 2023.77. Andrey Kokoshin, Victor Esin and Alexander Shlyakhturov, 'Strategicheskoye Sderzhivaniye v Politike Natsbezopasnosti RF' ['Strategic Deterrence in Russia's National Security Policy'], Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye [Independent Military Review], 14 October 2021(a), , accessed 20 February 2023.78. Kreidin, 'Global'noye i Regional'noye Yadernoye Sderzhivaniye: K Sisteme Printsipov i Kriteriyev' ['Global and Regional Nuclear Deterrence: Towards a System of Principles and Criteria'], p. 76.79. Levshin, Nedelin and Sosnovsky, 'O Primenenii Yadernogo Oruzhiya dlya Deeskalatsii Voyennykh Deystviy' ['On the Use of Nuclear Weapons to De-escalate Hostilities'], pp. 35–36.80. Ven Bruusgaard, 'Russian Nuclear Strategy and Conventional Inferiority', p. 7.81. Levshin, Nedelin and Sosnovsky, 'O Primenenii Yadernogo Oruzhiya dlya Deeskalatsii Voyennykh Deystviy' ['On the Use of Nuclear Weapons to De-escalate Hostilities'], pp. 35–36.82. Kreidin, 'Global'noye i Regional'noye Yadernoye Sderzhivaniye: K Sisteme Printsipov i Kriteriyev' ['Global and Regional Nuclear Deterrence: Towards a System of Principles and Criteria'], p. 75.83. Levshin, Nedelin and Sosnovsky, 'O Primenenii Yadernogo Oruzhiya dlya Deeskalatsii Voyennykh Deystviy' ['On the Use of Nuclear Weapons to De-escalate Hostilities'], p. 37.84. V A Ivasik, A S Pisyaukov and A L Khryapin, 'Yadernoye Oruzhiye i Voyennaya Bezopasnost' Rossii' ['Nuclear Weapons and Russia's Military Security'], Voennaya Mysl', (No. 4, 1999), p. 72.85. Lenta.ru, 'Sergey Ivanov Zayavil o Vozvrashchenii Yadernomu Oruzhiyu Svoystv "Real'nogo Voyennogo Instrumenta"' ['Sergei Ivanov Announced the Return of the Properties of a "Real Military Instrument" to Nuclear Weapons'], 2 October 2003, , accessed 10 May 2023.86. Interfax, 'Putin Soobshchil Rossiyanam o Nachale Voyennoy Operatsii na Ukraine. Tekst.' ['Putin Informed the Russians About the Start of a Military Operation in Ukraine. Text.'], 24 February 2022, , accessed 10 May 2023.87. Lucy Movsesyan, 'Putin Zayavil o Gotovnosti Ispol'zovat' "Vse Imeyushchiyesya Sredstva" dlya Zashchity Rossii' ['Putin Announced His Readiness to Use "All Available Means" to Protect Russia'], RTVI, 21 September 2022, , accessed 10 May 2023.88. Andrey Kokoshin, Victor Esin and Alexander Shlyakhturov, 'Strategicheskoye Sderzhivaniye v Politike Natsional'noy Bezopasnosti Rossii' ['Strategic Deterrence in Russia's National Security Policy'], Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye [Independent Military Review], 21 October 2021(b), , accessed 20 February 2023.89. The author is grateful to one of the anonymous reviewers for highlighting this point.90. Kevin Liffey (ed.), 'Kremlin: Russia Open to Ukraine Talks, But Won't Give Up Annexed Regions', Reuters, 28 February 2023.91. Steven Pifer, 'Pushing Back Against Putin's Threat of Nuclear Use in Ukraine', Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 10 October 2022, , accessed 20 April 2023.92. Alexander K Bollfrass and Stephen Herzog, 'The War in Ukraine and Global Nuclear Order', Survival (Vol. 64, No. 4, 2022), p. 10.93. Giles et al., 'Myths and Misconceptions Around Russian Military Intent'.94. Kalganov, Ryzhov and Soloviev, 'Strategicheskoye Sderzhivaniye kak Faktor Obespecheniya Natsional'noy Bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii' ['Strategic Deterrence as a Factor in the Provision of National Security of the Russian Federation'], p. 12; Kokoshin, Esin and Shlyakhturov, 'Strategicheskoye Sderzhivaniye v Politike Natsbezopasnosti RF', ['Strategic Deterrence in Russia's National Security Policy'], 2021(a).95. Kokoshin, Esin and Shlyakhturov, 'Strategicheskoye Sderzhivaniye v Politike Natsbezopasnosti RF' ['Strategic Deterrence in Russia's National Security Policy'], 2021(a).96. Lenta.ru, 'Kreml' Ozvuchil Svoyu Pozitsiyu po Primeneniyu Yadernogo Oruzhiya' ['The Kremlin Declared Its Position on the Use of Nuclear Weapons'], 17 November 2022, , accessed 20 February 2023.97. Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, 'Russian Strategic Deterrence', Survival (Vol. 58, No. 4, 2016), pp. 11–12.98. Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, 'Understanding Putin's Nuclear Decision-Making', War on the Rocks, 22 March 2022, , accessed 10 May 2023.99. Graeme P Herd, 'Strategic Competition Seminar Series (SCSS) Workshop II – No. 6', September 2022, , accessed 10 May 2023.Additional informationNotes on contributorsAnzhelika SolovyevaAnzhelika Solovyeva is an Assistant Professor specialising in Strategic Studies at the Department of Security Studies, Charles University. Her forthcoming monograph is entitled Technology in Russian Strategic Culture: From the Nineteenth Century to the Present Day.