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Climate change impacts the distribution and suitability of two wild species of the genus Stylosanthes

2024; Elsevier BV; Volume: 221; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.jaridenv.2024.105124

1095-922X

Fernando Bonifácio-Anacleto, Dora Yovana Barrios‐Leal, Thadeu Sobral‐Souza, Ana Lilia Alzate‐Marin,

Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

Climate change is a major threat to ecosystems and global biodiversity, directly impacting spatial species distribution. Using a species distribution modeling approach to predict present and future spatial distributions, we estimated the effects of future global warming on the wild tropical forages Stylosanthes capitata and Stylosanthes macrocephala. We modeled these species distributions, considering four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios spanning years 2080–2100. Our findings suggest both Stylosanthes species will undergo severe spatial displacement and a reduction of high-suitability areas across all temporal scenarios. Albeit some noticeable expansion into new areas, their suitability is notably low, especially under the RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Particularly, S. capitata exhibits a relatively higher resilience to climate changes projected in the RCP 2.6 scenario. However, these changes rate surpasses initial predictions, placing these species at an elevated risk of extinction in the near future. Our main highlight emphasizes the conservation urgency and management strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on these tropical forage species.