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Can assisted migration mitigate climate-change impacts on forests?

2024; Elsevier BV; Volume: 556; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.foreco.2024.121738

1872-7042

Wenhuan Xu, Cindy E. Prescott,

Forest Insect Ecology and Management

In the face of anthropogenic climate change, forest and tree populations must adapt, migrate, or face extirpation. Assisted migration (AM) has emerged as a promising forestry strategy to mitigate the impacts of climate change, yet its role in the evolutionary and ecological processes remains unclear. Various models, including climate niche models and transfer and response functions, have been employed to guide AM efforts. Each of these models has advantages and limitations, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of their rationale and constraints for further development and improvement. In our review, we aimed to define the role of forestry AM and elucidate the scenarios in which AM becomes a critical necessity in the context of climate change. Furthermore, we provided a comprehensive overview of the rationale and development of commonly used models and functions in the realm of forestry AM. Finally, we analyzed 214 published papers related to forestry AM, examining how previous evidence either supports or opposes the implementation of AM, and the underlying reasons for the agreement or disagreement. Our findings reveal that nearly 60% of the reviewed papers express a positive stance towards AM. More than one-fifth of the papers emphasize AM's potential to enhance adaptation. Another significant aspect supporting AM is its capacity to increase production and reduce extirpation risks. However, AM can also introduce invasive risks, lead to maladaptation, and even raise moral concerns. In conclusion, we advocate for a holistic approach to AM, incorporating genetic knowledge, models accounting for biological interactions and edaphic adaptation, and the formulation of comprehensive policies. This integrated strategy will be pivotal in guiding AM practices aimed at mitigating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.