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Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

2024; Nature Portfolio; Volume: 15; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

2041-1723

Kai Chen, Evan de Schrijver, Sidharth Sivaraj, Francesco Sera, Noah Scovronick, Leiwen Jiang, Dominic Royé, Éric Lavigne, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Alexandra Schneider, Veronika Huber, Joana Madureira, Malcolm Mistry, Ivana Cvijanović, Ben Armstrong, Rochelle Schneider, Aurelio Tobı́as, Christofer Åström, Yuming Guo, Yasushi Honda, Rosana Abrutzky, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni J. K. Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Klea Katsouyanni, Antonis Analitis, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Alireza Entezari, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Francesca de’Donato, Masahiro Hashizume, Barrak Alahmad, Magali Hurtado‐Díaz, César De la Cruz Valencia, Ala Overcenco, Danny Houthuijs, Caroline Ameling, Shilpa Rao, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Xerxes Seposo, Susana Pereira Silva, Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă, Fiorella Acquaotta, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Martina S. Ragettli, Yue Leon Guo, Shih‐Chun Pan, Shanshan Li, Valentina Colistro, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Trần Ngọc Đăng, Do Van Dung, Hanne Krage Carlsen, John Paul Cauchi, Souzana Achilleos, Raanan Raz, Antonio Gasparrini, Ana M. Vicedo‐Cabrera,

Air Quality and Health Impacts

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.