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The prevalence of objectivist risk in official DRR terminology and a consistent mathematical equation to define it

2024; Elsevier BV; Volume: 104; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104396

2212-4209

Osvaldo L. L. Moraes, Renato Santos Lacerda,

Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis

In this article, we show that the objectivist school of risk prevails in the terminology of disasters used in the DRR structures created by the UN since the 1990s. In particular, the concept of risk has gained prominence in all updates and revisions of terminology and is included in more than 30% of the concepts in the most recent terminology. The concept of risk adopted by the UNDRR is closely associated with the theory of probability developed by Pascal and Fermat in the 17th century. This association is used in this article to present a definition of risk in which threats from nature are placed on the same hierarchical level as the other elements that make up objectivist risk. Such a structure not only simplifies the definition of risk, but also serves as a guide for risk mitigation measures that can be taken by decision makers.