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Default prediction modeling (DPM) with machine learning algorithms: case of non-financial listed companies in Pakistan

2024; Emerald Publishing Limited; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1108/k-09-2023-1888

1758-7883

Jahanzaib Alvi, Imtiaz Arif,

Imbalanced Data Classification Techniques

Purpose The crux of this paper is to unveil efficient features and practical tools that can predict credit default. Design/methodology/approach Annual data of non-financial listed companies were taken from 2000 to 2020, along with 71 financial ratios. The dataset was bifurcated into three panels with three default assumptions. Logistic regression (LR) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) binary classification algorithms were used to estimate credit default in this research. Findings The study’s findings revealed that features used in Model 3 (Case 3) were the efficient and best features comparatively. Results also showcased that KNN exposed higher accuracy than LR, which proves the supremacy of KNN on LR. Research limitations/implications Using only two classifiers limits this research for a comprehensive comparison of results; this research was based on only financial data, which exhibits a sizeable room for including non-financial parameters in default estimation. Both limitations may be a direction for future research in this domain. Originality/value This study introduces efficient features and tools for credit default prediction using financial data, demonstrating KNN’s superior accuracy over LR and suggesting future research directions.