Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Understanding the role of energy sector in the outbreak of epidemic in China: An analysis based on SEIDR epidemic model, dynamic input-output model and resource allocation DEA model

2024; Elsevier BV; Volume: 305; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.energy.2024.132137

1873-6785

Lijuan Zhou, Ruchuan Zhang, Aizhen Zhang, Miao Li, Aijun Li,

Energy, Environment, Economic Growth

The global epidemic has triggered severe health crises and economic downturns, while energy plays an important role in the complicated sector interdependence. In such context, to gain a deeper understanding of the energy sector's role during epidemic outbreaks, this study develops a new methodological framework. The framework first combines SEIDR epidemic model with dynamic input-output model and resource allocation DEA model, linking epidemiological and socioeconomic aspects. Empirically, this study focuses on China's economy by constructing an energy-manufacturing-service system. Our main conclusions are summarized as follows. First, the epidemic generates substantial effects on energy sector, while the size of effects is sensitive to some key parameters. Second, the energy sector suffers the most significant decline in total output and capital due to the epidemic, particularly in Shandong and Gansu. Conversely, Beijing and Chongqing have shown the least changes, indicating a more resilient performance in comparison to other regions. Finally, a well-designed resource allocation strategy can reduce inefficiency, and then reduce the economic losses possibly caused by the epidemic. The energy sector has the adjusted production level of 0.295, indicating a need for targeted interventions and strategies to boost its performance.