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Small Municipalities in the Amazon under the Risk of Future Climate Change

2024; Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute; Volume: 12; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês

10.3390/cli12070095

2225-1154

Everaldo Barreiros de Souza, Brenda C. S. Silva, Emilene M. F. Serra, Melgris José Becerra, Alan Cavalcanti da Cunha, Paulo J. P. O. Souza, Luciano Ponzi Pezzi, Edson José Paulino da Rocha, Adriano Marlisom Leão de Sousa, João de Athaydes Silva, Alexandre Melo Casseb do Carmo, Douglas Batista da Silva Ferreira, Aline Maria Meiguins de Lima, Flávio Augusto Altieri dos Santos, Bergson Cavalcanti de Moraes, Maria de Lourdes Pinheiro Ruivo, Peter Mann de Toledo, Tércio Ambrizzi,

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

The focus of this work is on small municipalities (population below 50 thousand inhabitants) that cover around 87% of the territory of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). Based on a comprehensive integrated analysis approach using the three components hazard (climate extremes from CMIP6 future scenarios), exposure (directly affected population), and vulnerability (subdimensions of susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity by using multidimensional indicators), the latter two using current datasets provided by the official Census IBGE 2022, we document a quantitative assessment of the risk R of natural disasters in the BLA region. We evidenced a worrying and imminent intensification of the curve of R in most Amazonian municipalities over the next two 25-year periods. The overall results of the highest proportions of R (total municipalities affected) pointed out the Amazonas, Roraima, Pará, and Maranhão as the main states, presenting projected categories of R high in the near future (2015 to 2039) and very high in the far future (2040 to 2064). The detailed assessment of the susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity allowed us to elucidate the principal indicators that aggravate the degree of vulnerability: economy, the precariousness of urban infrastructure, medical services, communication, and urban mobility, whose combined factors, unfortunately, reveal a widespread poverty profile along the small Amazonian municipalities. Our scientific findings can assist decision makers in targeted strategies planning and public policies to minimize and mitigate ongoing and future climate change.