Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030

2024; Elsevier BV; Volume: 9; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635

2059-7029

Stefano Guzzinati, Federica Toffolutti, Silvia Francisci, Angela De Paoli, Fabiola Giudici, Roberta De Angelis, Elena Demuru, Laura Botta, Andrea Tavilla, Gemma Gatta, Riccardo Capocaccia, Manuel Zorzi, Adele Caldarella, Ettore Bidoli, Fabio Falcini, Renato Bruni, Enrica Migliore, Antonella Puppo, Margherita Ferrante, Cinzia Gasparotti, Maria Letizia Gambino, Giuliano Carrozzi, Fortunato Bianconi, Antonino Musolino, Rossella Cavallo, Walter Mazzucco, Mario Fusco, Paola Ballotari, Giuseppe Sampietro, Stefano Ferretti, Lucìa Mangone, William Mantovani, Michael Mian, Giovanni Cascone, Francesca Manzoni, Rocco Galasso, Daniela Piras, Maria Teresa Pesce, F. Bella, Pietro Seghini, Anna Clara Fanetti, P. Pinna, Diego Serraino, Silvia Rossi, Luigino Dal Maso, Emanuele Crocetti, Sandra Mallone, Daniela Pierannunzio, Paolo Contiero, Giovanna Tagliabue, Laura Memo, Gianfranco Manneschi, Alessandra Ravaioli, Francesco Cuccaro, Lorenzo Richiardi, Claudia Casella, Alessia Anna Di Prima, Giovanni Maifredi, Monica Lanzoni, Claudia Cirilli, Sílvia Leite, Maria Michiara, Serena Ferraioli, Maurizio Zarcone, Maria Francesca Vitale, Erica Giacomazzi, Silvia Ghisleni, Isabella Bisceglia, Maria Gentilini, Fabio Vittadello, Eugenia Spata, Stefano Marguati, Luciana Del Riccio, Elisa Concas, Alessandra Sessa, Antonino Ziino Colanino, R Prazzoli, Gaetano Maria De Ferrari, L Canu,

Palliative Care and End-of-Life Issues

•Italy will have 4 million cancer survivors in 2030 (6.9% of the population), half diagnosed at least 10 years earlier.•From 2018 to 2030, the complete prevalence will increase by 1.5% per year.•As many as 7 out of 8 prevalent cases have the same life expectancy as the general population.•Ten years after diagnosis, 96% of survivors will not die from cancer.•Prevalence estimates are essential to improve consistent, data-driven cancer control planning. BackgroundThe number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking.Materials and methodsData from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis.ResultsA total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 − cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%).ConclusionsStudy findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning. The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking. Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis. A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 − cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%). Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.