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Application of Flow Prediction Models to the HPP Castro Alves for Planning Preventive Actions Against Extreme Events

2024; Springer Nature; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1007/978-981-97-9184-2_43

2366-2557

Beatriz Sepulveda Pires, Chen Xin-jian, Hanshan Zhang,

Geography and Environmental Studies

Abstract Today, the effects of climate change are increasingly evident. In the southern region of Brazil, significant impacts have been observed, such as the peak flows in November 2023, when a state of emergency was declared in the areas of the municipalities of Rio das Antas, Rio Grande do Sul, due to the impacts of heavy rainfall in the region. Such events may become more frequent in the coming years, so that the forecasting of hydroelectric inflows is necessary to plan the operation of the plants and to carry out preventive actions to deal with extreme events. The Ceran complex is located on the Antas River and consists of three hydroelectric plants, the Castro Alves, Monte Claro and Quartorze de Julho plants, and with a view to the sustainable operation of the projects in order to make conscious use of water resources, optimize operations and minimize the impact on the well-being of local populations, it has been studied and applied that rainfall-runoff models to forecast the inflows to the projects on the Antas River cascade. Rainfall-runoff models are essential for predicting extreme flows and taking preventive action, providing the operations center and the team involved with information for prior decision-making and, if necessary, evacuation of operators and potentially affected communities. In view of the above, this paper will apply the MEL model to convert rainfall into flow and compare the predicted results with the observed ones.