Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

TILTomorrow today: dynamic factors predicting changes in intracranial pressure treatment intensity after traumatic brain injury

2025; Nature Portfolio; Volume: 15; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1038/s41598-024-83862-x

2045-2322

Shubhayu Bhattacharyay, Florian D. van Leeuwen, Erta Beqiri, Cecilia Åkerlund, Lindsay Wilson, Ewout W. Steyerberg, David Nelson, Andrew I.R. Maas, David Menon, Ari Ercole, Cecilia Åkerlund, Krisztina Amrein, Nada Anđelić, Lasse Andreassen, Audny Anke, Anna Degli Antoni, Gérard Audibert, Philippe Azouvi, Maria Luisa Azzolini, Ronald Bartels, Pál Barzó, Romuald Beauvais, Ronny Beer, Bo-Michael Bellander, Antonio Belli, Habib Benali, Maurizio Berardino, Luigi Beretta, Morten Blaabjerg, Peter Bragge, Alexandra Bražinová, Vibeke Brinck, Joanne Brooker, Camilla Brorsson, Andras Buki, Monika Bullinger, Manuel Cabeleira, Alessio Caccioppola, Emiliana Calappi, Maria Rosa Calvi, Peter Cameron, Guillermo Carbayo Lozano, Marco Carbonara, Simona Cavallo, Giorgio Chevallard, Arturo Chieregato, Giuseppe Citerio, Hans Clusmann, Mark Coburn, Jonathan Coles, D. James Cooper, Marta Correia, Amra Čović, Nicola Curry, Endre Czeiter, Marek Czosnyka, Claire Dahyot‐Fizelier, Paul Dark, Helen Dawes, Véronique De Keyser, Vincent Degos, Françesco Della Corte, Hugo den Boogert, Bart Depreitere, Đula Đilvesi, Abhishek Dixit, Emma Donoghue, Jens P. Dreier, Guy-Loup Dulière, Ari Ercole, Patrick Esser, Erzsébet Ezer, Martin Fabricius, Valery L. Feigin, Kelly Foks, Shirin Frisvold, Alex Furmanov, Pablo Gagliardo, Damien Galanaud, Dashiell Gantner, Guoyi Gao, Pradeep George, Alexandre Ghuysen, Lelde Giga, Ben Glocker, Jagoš Golubović, Pedro A. Gómez, Johannes Gratz, Benjamin Gravesteijn, Francesca Grossi, Russell L. Gruen, Deepak Gupta, Juanita A. Haagsma, Iain Haitsma, Raimund Helbok, Eirik Helseth, Lindsay Horton, Jilske Huijben, Peter J. Hutchinson, Bram Jacobs, Stefan Jankowski, Mike Jarrett, Jiyao Jiang, Faye Johnson, Kelly Jones, Mladen Karan, Angelos G. Kolias, Erwin J. O. Kompanje, Daniel Kondziella, Evgenios Kornaropoulos, Lars‐Owe Koskinen, Noémi Kovács, Ana Kowark, Alfonso Lagares, Linda Lanyon, Steven Laureys, Fiona Lecky, Didier Ledoux, Rolf Lefering, Valérie Legrand, Aurélie Lejeune, Leon Levi, Roger Lightfoot, Hester F. Lingsma, Andrew I.R. Maas, Ana M. Castaño‐León, Marc Maegele, Marek Majdán, Alex Manara, Geoffrey T. Manley, Costanza Martino, Hugues Maréchal, Julia Mattern, Catherine McMahon, Béla Melegh, David K. Menon, Tomas Menovsky, Ana Mikolić, Benoît Misset, Visakh Muraleedharan, Lynnette Murray, Ancuța Negru, David Nelson, Virginia Newcombe, Daan Nieboer, József Nyirádi, Otesile Olubukola, Matej Orešič, Fabrizio Ortolano, Aarno Palotie, Paul M. Parizel, Jean‐François Payen, Natascha Perera, Vincent Perlbarg, Paolo Persona, Wilco C. Peul, Anna Piippo-Karjalainen, Matti Pirinen, Dana Pisică, Horia Pleș, Suzanne Polinder, Iñigo Pomposo, Jussi P. Posti, Louis Puybasset, Andreea Rădoi, Arminas Ragauskas, Rahul Raj, Malinka Rambadagalla, Isabel Retel Helmrich, Jonathan R. Rhodes, Sylvia Richardson, Sophie Richter, Samuli Ripatti, Saulius Ročka, Cecilie Røe, Olav Røise, Jonathan Rosand, Jeffrey V. Rosenfeld, Christina Rosenlund, Guy Rosenthal, Rolf Rossaint, Sandra Rossi, Daniel Rueckert, Martin Rusňák, Juan Sahuquillo, Oliver Sakowitz, Renán Sánchez-Porras, János Sándor, Nadine Schäfer, Silke Schmidt, Herbert Schöechl, Guus Schoonman, Rico Frederik Schou, Elisabeth Schwendenwein, Charlie Sewalt, Ranjit D. Singh, Toril Skandsen, Peter Smielewski, Abayomi Sorinola, Emmanuel A. Stamatakis, Simon Stanworth, Robert D. Stevens, William Stewart, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Nino Stocchetti, Nina Sundström, Riikka Takala, Viktória Tamás, Tomas Tamošuitis, Mark Taylor, Aurore Thibaut, Braden Te Ao, Olli Tenovuo, Alice Theadom, Matt Thomas, Dick Tibboel, Marjolein Timmers, Christos Tolias, Tony Trapani, Cristina Maria Tudora, Andreas Unterberg, Peter Vajkoczy, Shirley Vallance, Egils Valeinis, Zoltán Vámos, Mathieu van der Jagt, Gregory Van der Steen, Joukje van der Naalt, Jeroen T.J.M. van Dijck, Inge A. M. van Erp, Thomas A. van Essen, Wim Van Hecke, Caroline van Heugten, Ernest van Veen, Thijs Vande Vyvere, Roel P. J. van Wijk, Alessia Vargiolu, Emmanuel Vega, Kimberley Velt, Jan Verheyden, Paul Vespa, Anne Vik, Rimantas Vilcinis, Victor Volovici, Nicole von Steinbüchel, Daphne Voormolen, Petar Vuleković, Kevin Wang, Daniel Whitehouse, Eveline Wiegers, Guy Williams, Stefan Winzeck, Stefan Wolf, Zhihui Yang, Peter Ylén, Alexander Younsi, Frederick A. Zeiler, Veronika Zelinkova, Agate Ziverte, Tommaso Zoerle,

Trauma and Emergency Care Studies

Abstract Practices for controlling intracranial pressure (ICP) in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) vary considerably between centres. To help understand the rational basis for such variance in care, this study aims to identify the patient-level predictors of changes in ICP management. We extracted all heterogeneous data (2008 pre-ICU and ICU variables) collected from a prospective cohort ( n = 844, 51 ICUs) of ICP-monitored TBI patients in the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI study. We developed the TILTomorrow modelling strategy, which leverages recurrent neural networks to map a token-embedded time series representation of all variables (including missing values) to an ordinal, dynamic prediction of the following day’s five-category therapy intensity level (TIL (Basic) ) score. With 20 repeats of fivefold cross-validation, we trained TILTomorrow on different variable sets and applied the TimeSHAP (temporal extension of SHapley Additive exPlanations) algorithm to estimate variable contributions towards predictions of next-day changes in TIL (Basic) . Based on Somers’ D xy , the full range of variables explained 68% (95% CI 65–72%) of the ordinal variation in next-day changes in TIL (Basic) on day one and up to 51% (95% CI 45–56%) thereafter, when changes in TIL (Basic) became less frequent. Up to 81% (95% CI 78–85%) of this explanation could be derived from non-treatment variables (i.e., markers of pathophysiology and injury severity), but the prior trajectory of ICU management significantly improved prediction of future de-escalations in ICP-targeted treatment. Whilst there was no significant difference in the predictive discriminability (i.e., area under receiver operating characteristic curve) between next-day escalations (0.80 [95% CI 0.77–0.84]) and de-escalations (0.79 [95% CI 0.76–0.82]) in TIL (Basic) after day two, we found specific predictor effects to be more robust with de-escalations. The most important predictors of day-to-day changes in ICP management included preceding treatments, age, space-occupying lesions, ICP, metabolic derangements, and neurological function. Serial protein biomarkers were also important and may serve a useful role in the clinical armamentarium for assessing therapeutic needs. Approximately half of the ordinal variation in day-to-day changes in TIL (Basic) after day two remained unexplained, underscoring the significant contribution of unmeasured factors or clinicians’ personal preferences in ICP treatment. At the same time, specific dynamic markers of pathophysiology associated strongly with changes in treatment intensity and, upon mechanistic investigation, may improve the timing and personalised targeting of future care.