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Using a Mathematical Model to Analyze the Population Increase from Dual Income, No Kid Families

2012; Springer Science+Business Media; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1007/978-3-642-25778-0_114

1876-1119

Ruomu Hu, Junxin Liang, Song Fang, Guo Zhongping,

Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences

The main factors affecting the composition of DINK (Double income no kid) families are the proportion of people living in cities, the proportion of college educated women, and the proportion of people in the previous two situations that accept the idea of a DINK family. These three factors will be analyzed to determine a growth model for the phenomenon of DINK families. In order to predict the proportion of people in China who will accept the concept of DINK families in thpe coming years, the Grey Model is used to determine the DINK coefficient. This is used in turn to predict the trend of the DINK phenomenon in China during the next fifty years. Since the DINK phenomenon influences the total birth rate, the abovementioned predictions will be combined with the Song Jian - Yu Jingyuan model of population development to produce predictions for birth rates, mortality rates, migration rates, and other population parameters.