FORECASTING DAILY USAGE OF A TOLL HIGHWAY
2000; Hemming Group; Volume: 41; Issue: 5 Linguagem: Inglês
ISSN
0041-0683
Autores Tópico(s)Transportation Planning and Optimization
Resumo407 ETR, also known as Highway 407, is the world's first fully electronic highway to serve only an urban area; it operates in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) of Canada. It is a toll road in the GTA, built to relieve Highway 401, the busiest road in North America; about 67km of its eventual 154km is currently open. This paper describes the model development and calibration processes used to estimate the daily usage of the 407 ETR. Forecasting was required for the period 15 June 1998 to 31 December 1998, using data from 14 October 1997 to 14 June 1998. The calibration and forecasting were especially difficult, because major increases in user numbers were being obtained through progressive ramp-up. The data used here came from the electronic tolling system, which is an excellent system for highway monitoring and planning, which contains data about every vehicle using the system. The paper first develops and explains the four mathematical models used, then gives calibration results to find which model is best. After that, it gives validation results, comparing the predicted numbers of highway users with the observed numbers during a five-month period; the two sets of numbers agreed reasonably well. Statistical methods used included significance tests, regression analysis, and time series analysis.
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