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Analysis of Intra-city Bus Demand during Rainfall Using Ordered Probit Model

2011; Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies; Volume: 29; Issue: 5 Linguagem: Inglês

1881-1124

Heon-Yeong Jeong, Geum-Yeong Song, Gwang-Uk Kim,

Transportation and Mobility Innovations

After implementing Semi-public management system of intra-city bus, the burden of financial aid for unprofitable routes is on the increase in Busan metro city. It becomes a heavy burden on the local finance, which needs to be resolved for improving the intra-bus system. The rainfall is one of the factors influencing the demands for intra-bus in urban transportation. Motivated by this fact, this study investigates the impact of rainfall on the intra-city bus demand. Actual bus users are surveyed on their patterns and recognition of using the bus according to the amount of rainfall. A rainfall forecast model using ordered probit model is presented, and the elasticity of the intra-city bus utilization to the amount of rainfall is also analyzed. The resulting findings could be applied to promote the use of intra-city buses and also be utilized as basic data for other studies to improve the intra-city bus system.