The U.S. Economy in 2014... A Breakout Year
2014; Volume: 33; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês
ISSN
1930-126X
Autores Tópico(s)Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
ResumoThe information in this forecast is gathered by the Journal from sources it considers reliable. Neither the Journal nor the individual institutions providing the data guarantee accuracy; nor do any of them warrant in any way that use of the data appearing herein will enhance the business or investment performance of companies or individuals who use them.PARTICIPANTS I Beacon Economics = Los Angeles, California; Conf. Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Fannie Mae = Fannie Mae, Washington, D.C.; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; SP UBS = UBS Bank, Salt Lake City, Utah; US Bank = U.S. Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.For most of us, it seems there are two salient issues: will this winter ever end and will the U. S. economy enter into a robust vibrant growth path? Regarding both, I offer a less than enthusiastic report. Undoubtedly, the cries regarding the return to another recession have diminished greatly; still there are many prognosticators worried about the fortunes of the U. S. economy this year. It is not a matter of a derailment as much as it is the over anticipation of 2014 being a breakout year. As always, Dr. Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's J. Mack Robinson College of Business leads the way with an excellent and in-depth analysis of the situation as he sees it. Citing strong evidence from last year in unemployment, auto sales, housing, and a surging stock market, Dhawan counters with a less than a vibrant assessment regarding business investment spending prospects. At play here is the dismal outlookfor manufacturing related to the apparent weakness in China's economy, continual financing constraints realized by small businesses in general, and a less than rosy outlook for corporation's cash receipts. In addition, Dhawan looks disparagingly on job growth numbers related to the issue of quality. Despite the impressive job gains from last year, approximately one-third were in retail trade and hospitality sectors known for low-paying jobs. As such, income growth was not supported. John Silvia, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo, calls for trend-like growth around 2. …
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