Anarchy in Afghanistan
1997; Columbia University; Volume: 51; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês
ISSN
0022-197X
Autores Tópico(s)Political Conflict and Governance
ResumoAlmost 20 years of war have shattered Afghanistan. Today e country is divided into several hostile fiefdoms and anarchy reigns in much of the countryside. Putting back the pieces has been difficult, and the prognosis for peace in the immediate future is bleak. Although Soviet meddling sparked the conflict in 1978, their withdrawal in 1989 did not end Afghanistan's woes. Instead, war, anarchy and fragmentation followed the Soviet withdrawal, as fighting continued against the Soviet-installed Najibullah government. Mohammed Najibullah's overthrow in 1992 finally brought the anti-Soviet resistance groups--called the mujahedin--to power, but still the war did not end. Without the glue of a common enemy, the mujahedin turned their guns on each other in a brutal civil war. Peace remains an unlikely prospect in the near future because no Afghan group has been able to impose its will on the other factions. In addition to disagreement among the various factions over the division of power, constant competition among outside states for influence has also destabilized Afghanistan. Indeed, if anything, competition among regional powers has become more intense after Kabul's takeover in September 1996 by the Taliban guerrilla group. The conflict in Afghanistan has deep social and political roots. But the immediate factors responsible for the fighting are the fragmentation of power during the years of resistance to the Soviet Union and increased ethnic tensions. The most desirable outcome for the civil war would be: an agreement among the warring factions on a cease-fire; the establishment of a broadly acceptable interim government; the disarming and integration of the various militias into a national army; the reconstruction of the country's economy; the resettlement of refugees; and the reestablishment of civil society and the rule of law. Peace in Afghanistan also requires that its government pursue good relations with all its neighbors. Afghanistan's neighbors, in turn, would have to abandon plans for hegemony. For such a settlement to take place, greater international support--especially American--for a negotiated settlement is vital. Unfortunately, efforts at promoting peace have been half-hearted. No serious attempts have been made to develop a true international consensus in favor of a political settlement or to deal with the issue of the multiplicity of armed forces backed by rival regional powers. Nor has there been any effort to punish factions opposed to peace. This article analyzes both the internal and external factors contributing to the continuation of the civil war and assesses future prospects for stability in Afghanistan. It concludes by identifying the conditions conducive to promoting peace in this wartorn country. The Causes of Anarchy in Afghanistan Afghanistan's anarchy has two sets of causes: domestic and international. At the domestic level, Afghanistan's ethnic and tribal politics have long contributed to instability. The largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, the Pashtuns, are divided into many tribal confederations with major inter-tribal rivalries, especially between the Durranis and the Ghelzais. Some, especially those living in or near Kabul and Herat, were Tajikized (Persianized)--that is, their mother tongue changed from Pashtun to Dari (Afghan Persian). For much of Afghanistan's recent history, the Pashtuns produced the Afghan monarchs and dominated the military arid the bureaucracy. Among Afghanistan's other main ethnic groups, the Tajiks participated more in running the country than the Uzbeks or Hazaras. The Hazaras in particular were disenfranchised and impoverished. They were forcefully brought under central control in the 1880s and 1890s.(1) Afghanistan has also been the scene of great power rivalry. In fact, the borders of what is now Afghanistan came about as result of the rivalry between the Russian and British empires. …
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